We're deep into the stretch drive of the 2017 season, and that means our focus is squarely on the various and sundry playoff races.
Obviously, a glance at the standings page will give you an idea of where things stand when it comes to those coveted 10 postseason berths, but to peer a bit more deeply into these vital matters we'll turn to our compadres over at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team's chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. It's partly based on results to date, of course, but how each team projects the rest of the way at the roster level also plays a big role.
So below you'll see each team's forecast regular-season record for 2017, forecast record for the remainder of the season, chances that they make the playoffs via division title or wild-card berth, and then the current chances that they win the pennant and World Series. Pretty much covers it, no? By the way, these numbers aren't just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system.
First, let's jump into the AL:
AMERICAN LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | ALCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Cleveland Indians | 100.6 | 61.4 | 62.1% | 7.6 | 4.4 | 63.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1/1, 50% | 36.72% | 9/4, 30.8% | 19.58% |
Houston Astros | 97.9 | 64.1 | 60.5% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 53.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 12/5, 29.4% | 21.50% | 5/1, 16.7% | 8.99% |
Boston Red Sox | 93.3 | 68.8 | 57.6% | 8.2 | 4.8 | 63.4% | 85.5% | 100.0% | 15/4, 21.1% | 26.90% | 10/1, 9.1% | 12.30% |
New York Yankees | 90.1 | 71.9 | 55.6% | 8.1 | 4.9 | 62.4% | 14.5% | 99.9% | 11/2, 15.4% | 11.41% | 12/1, 7.7% | 5.36% |
Minnesota Twins | 85.1 | 76.9 | 52.5% | 7.1 | 5.9 | 54.5% | 0.0% | 84.1% | 25/1, 3.8% | 2.89% | 50/1, 2% | 0.93% |
Los Angeles Angels | 82.9 | 79.1 | 51.2% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 53.0% | 0.0% | 14.1% | 50/1, 2% | 0.53% | 100/1, 1% | 0.19% |
Seattle Mariners | 79.5 | 82.5 | 49.1% | 5.5 | 6.5 | 45.9% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 100/1, 1% | 0.01% | 200/1, 0.5% | 0.01% |
Texas Rangers | 79.4 | 82.6 | 49.0% | 6.4 | 6.6 | 49.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.00% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.00% |
Kansas City Royals | 79.3 | 82.7 | 48.9% | 6.3 | 6.7 | 48.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 150/1, 0.7% | 0.01% | 300/1, 0.3% | 0.00% |
Baltimore Orioles | 78.7 | 83.3 | 48.6% | 5.7 | 6.3 | 47.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1/0, 0% | 0.01% | 1/0, 0% | 0.01% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 78.4 | 83.7 | 48.4% | 5.4 | 6.6 | 44.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1/0, 0% | 0.01% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 75.3 | 86.7 | 46.5% | 5.3 | 6.7 | 43.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Oakland Athletics | 72.8 | 89.2 | 44.9% | 6.8 | 6.2 | 52.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Detroit Tigers | 66.2 | 95.8 | 40.9% | 4.2 | 8.8 | 32.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Chicago White Sox | 64.7 | 97.3 | 40.0% | 4.7 | 8.3 | 36.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Here's how SportsLine as of Monday projects the American League playoff bracket:
- Wild Card Game: Twins at Yankees
- ALDS: Red Sox vs. Astros
- ALDS: Wild-card winner vs. Indians
As you see, the Indians are projected to notch 100 or more wins for just the third time in franchise history. SportsLine also now gives the Tribe roughly a one-in-five chance to win the World Series, which is strong. To put that in context, just before the streak began SportsLine gave the Indians an 8.03 percent chance of winning it all.
Despite trailing the Astros by a handful of projected wins, the Red Sox have a significantly higher WS% than does Houston. Elsewhere, the twins are beginning to eek out a bit of separation in the race for the second AL wild card berth. Per the projections, only the Angels at present have a meaningful chance of catching Minnesota.
To the NL ...
NATIONAL LEAGUE | SEASON FORECAST | REST OF SEASON | MAKE PLAYOFFS | POSTSEASON SUCCESS | ||||||||
WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WINS | LOSS | WIN% | WIN DIV | PLAYOFF | NLCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% | |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 104.4 | 57.7 | 64.4% | 8.4 | 4.6 | 64.3% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 6/5, 45.5% | 43.10% | 5/2, 28.6% | 23.82% |
Washington Nationals | 97.8 | 64.2 | 60.4% | 7.8 | 5.2 | 59.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 14/5, 26.3% | 24.94% | 7/1, 12.5% | 14.21% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 94.7 | 67.3 | 58.4% | 7.7 | 4.3 | 63.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 11/2, 15.4% | 12.71% | 14/1, 6.7% | 6.12% |
Chicago Cubs | 89.9 | 72.1 | 55.5% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 52.8% | 88.4% | 91.1% | 7/2, 22.2% | 12.47% | 8/1, 11.1% | 5.98% |
Colorado Rockies | 88.5 | 73.5 | 54.6% | 6.5 | 5.5 | 54.2% | 0.0% | 88.2% | 10/1, 9.1% | 4.18% | 25/1, 3.8% | 1.51% |
Milwaukee Brewers | 85.9 | 76.1 | 53.0% | 6.9 | 6.1 | 53.0% | 10.7% | 16.6% | 30/1, 3.2% | 2.24% | 80/1, 1.2% | 0.85% |
St Louis Cardinals | 84.0 | 78.0 | 51.8% | 7.0 | 6.0 | 53.7% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 40/1, 2.4% | 0.35% | 100/1, 1% | 0.15% |
Miami Marlins | 75.3 | 86.7 | 46.5% | 6.3 | 6.7 | 48.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.9 | 88.1 | 45.6% | 5.9 | 6.1 | 49.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Atlanta Braves | 73.5 | 88.5 | 45.4% | 6.5 | 7.5 | 46.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
New York Mets | 71.3 | 90.7 | 44.0% | 6.3 | 6.7 | 48.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
San Diego Padres | 70.6 | 91.4 | 43.6% | 4.6 | 8.4 | 35.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Cincinnati Reds | 70.3 | 91.7 | 43.4% | 4.3 | 7.7 | 35.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 63.5 | 98.5 | 39.2% | 5.5 | 7.5 | 42.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
San Francisco Giants | 62.6 | 99.4 | 38.6% | 4.6 | 6.4 | 41.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% | 1/0, 0% | 0.00% |
And here's the current projected NL playoff bracket ...
- Wild Card Game: Rockies at Diamondbacks
- NLDS: Cubs vs. Nationals
- NLDS: Wild-card winner vs. Dodgers
Since last we talked, the Dodgers have improved their play, and their World Series percentage has enjoyed a related jump. The D-Backs also have the third-highest WS% despite the fact that they'll have to play the Wild Card Game. The big losers this week? It's the Cardinals. Last time out, they had a very playable 38.4 percent chance of making the postseason. After getting swept at Wrigley by the first-place Cubs, that figure is now down to a measly 3.8 percent. Suffice it to say, recent events have been unkind to St. Louis.
Speaking of the Cubs, they begin a 10-game road trip on Tuesday that will likely determine their season. Yes, they've got a healthy lead in the NL Central, but they have four games in Milwaukee and another four in St. Louis coming up. By implication, the Brewers still have a chance.
Developing!
