The 2018-19 offseason is still young. So young in fact that we're still waiting for a free agent to change teams. A few players (Brett Gardner, Jung Ho Kang, CC Sabathia) have re-signed with their former team. We're still waiting for that first free agent to jump ship and sign a guaranteed major-league contract with a new club.

This free-agent class is the best we've seen in years. Two prime-aged stars are available in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, plus other quality players like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel and Michael Brantley are available as well. This free-agent class could've been even better had several players not opted for long-term security earlier in their careers.

These days many players sign long-term contract extensions early in their careers, pushing back their free agency. They trade their maximum earning potential (through arbitration and free agency) for financial security earlier in their career. I don't blame them one bit. I'd do the same thing. It does mean these top youngsters aren't hitting free agency when expected though.

It takes six full years of service time to quality for free agency, though given the way teams manipulate service time these days, it often takes closer to seven years. Kris Bryant, for example, will end up playing six full seasons and two weeks short of a seventh full season before becoming a free agent thanks to the way the Cubs kept him in the minors to start 2015.

There are 10 players around the league who reached six years of service time in 2018, but did not become a free agent this offseason because they signed early career extensions. Because we like ranking things, here is a wholly subjective ranking of those 10 players, who would have undoubtedly spiced up the offseason had they not signed extensions.

1. Corey Kluber
BOS • SP • #28
ContractFive years, $38.5 million plus two club options (Signed April 2015)
View Profile

Over the last five seasons Corey Kluber has been on the very short list of the best pitchers in baseball, and the Indians wisely signed him to a bargain five-year contract in April 2015. That was a few months after he won his first Cy Young award. Here's where he ranks among MLB starters since signing the contract:

  • Innings: 855 2/3 (second)
  • ERA: 2.96 (fifth overall and first among AL pitchers)
  • ERA+: 150 (third)
  • Strikeouts: 959 (third)
  • WAR: 24.2 (second)

Even after hitting all his salary escalators tied to Cy Young voting, Kluber is still owed only $52.5 million the next three seasons, assuming his two club options are picked up. That is a steal of a contract for Cleveland. With all due respect to Corbin and Keuchel, Kluber would've been the No. 1 free-agent pitcher on the market this offseason had he not signed his deal.

What would he get this offseason? Kluber was a late-bloomer and he'll spend just about the entire 2019 season at age 33, which would've cut into his earning potential. Zack Greinke spent the entire first season of his six-year, $206.5 million contract with the Diamondbacks at age 32. Elite players get $30 million annually these days. Kluber's age likely limits him to a four or five-year contract, however, which means $150 million or less. That's still a heck of a lot more than what he's owed now.

2. Andrelton Simmons
CHC • SS • #19
ContractSeven years, $58 million (Signed February 2014)
View Profile

What a ballplayer Andrelton Simmons has become. He remains an All-World defender at shortstop -- I don't know if he's Ozzie Smith level, but the fact it's even a conversation tells you how good he is -- and he's providing more on offense than ever before. This past season Simmons set new career highs in batting average (.292), on-base percentage (.337), OPS (.754), and OPS+ (109) while chipping in 26 doubles and 11 homers. That level of offense combined with his defense makes Simmons an easy +6 WAR player. There are two years and $28 million remaining on his contract.

What would he get this offseason? Between the offense, the elite level defense, and the fact he turned only 29 in September, I am pretty confident Simmons would be a $100 million player this offseason. Jose Reyes inked a six-year contract with the Marlins worth $102 million when he was Andrelton's age and that seems to be the floor to me. Simmons and his representatives could go into contract talks expecting as much as Reyes, if not more given general inflation.

3. Anthony Rizzo
NYY • 1B • #48
ContractSeven years, $41 million plus two club options (Signed May 2013)
View Profile

Hard to believe Anthony Rizzo only now reached six full years of service time, isn't it? It feels like he's been around a lot longer. That's because Rizzo went up and down in 2011 and 2012, and fell only four days -- four days! -- short of six years of service time last offseason. This past season was Rizzo's worst since 2013, his first full big-league season, and in fact his production has been slipping over the years. Check out his OPS+ numbers from 2014-18: 152, 146, 143, 131, 121. Huh. That said, Rizzo remains incredibly productive, and he brings captain-caliber leadership to the clubhouse. He's owed roughly $42 million the next three years, assuming the two options get picked up.

What would he get this offseason? What a player is worth and what a player is paid are often two very different things. Free agency has not been kind to first baseman over the years. Carlos Santana led the way at the position with a three-year, $60 million deal last offseason. Rizzo is still only 29, so he still has some peak years remaining, but he did just have his worst season in a half-decade, and that matters. He could push for Chris Davis money (seven years, $161 million) but gosh, I don't see that happening. Something like the five-year, $110 million deal the Red Sox gave J.D. Martinez last winter might be more realistic.

4. Jean Segura
CLE • SS
ContractFive years, $70 million plus one club option (Signed June 2017)
View Profile

Jean Segura would've been one of the most coveted players on the free-agent market this offseason had he not signed his deal, perhaps even more coveted than Rizzo. He's hit .308/.353/.449 (116 OPS+) with 41 homers and 75 stolen bases the last three seasons, and he's become a very good defensive shortstop. Segura turns only 29 in March too, so he still has several more peak years remaining. The Mariners wisely locked him up two years ago. They only owe him $60.4 million the next four years.

What would he get this offseason? The Reyes contract fits here again. Six years and $102 million or so. Segura is younger than Simmons and he's put up much better offensive numbers in recent years and throughout his career. No, he's not the defender Andrelton is, but he's quite good. Segura is awfully valuable and would've been paid quite well this offseason given the dearth of quality middle infielders in the game.

5. Jose Quintana
NYM • SP • #62
ContractFive years, $21 million plus two club options (Signed March 2014)
View Profile

The second Cubs players on our list is also the second pitcher on our list. Jose Quintana hasn't been quite as good on Chicago's north side (3.93 ERA and 110 ERA+) as he was on the south side (3.51 ERA and 115 ERA+), but he's a workhorse and he'll turn only 30 in January. Quintana would've fit in comfortably alongside Corbin and Keuchel in this free-agent class. The Cubbies picked up his $10.5 million for 2019 a few weeks ago. Barring injury, picking his $11.5 million option up for 2020 is a no-brainer.

What would he get this offseason? I think Quintana would fall short of Yu Darvish (six years, $126 million) and Johnny Cueto (six years, $130 million) money because those guys had stretches of dominance and were true aces at times. As good as Quintana has been, he's always been a notch below ace-level. Jordan Zimmermann (five years, $110 million) might be the more appropriate contract benchmark here.

6. Sean Doolittle
WAS • RP • #63
ContractFive years, $10.5 million plus two club options (Signed April 2014)
View Profile

Injuries have slowed Sean Doolittle over the years but he has never not been excellent when healthy, and that includes throwing 45 innings with a 1.60 ERA (267 OPS+), a microscopic 0.60 WHIP, and a 60/6 K/BB around foot trouble in 2018. Doolittle is a late-bloomer as a converted position player -- he turned 32 in September -- but he is a proven high-leverage arm. The Nationals exercised his $6 million option for 2019 a few weeks ago and, barring injury, will exercise his $6.5 million for 2020 next offseason.

What would he get this offseason? As frigid as the free-agent market was last offseason, relievers still got paid very well. Baseball is bullpen-centric now, and while I don't think Doolittle would get $17 million a year like Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen, I do think he's an eight-figure reliever. Three years and $33 million or so would seem to work here. That's a tick above Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw money. Those two signed matching three-year, $27 million contracts with the Rockies last winter.

7. Adam Eaton
LAA • RF • #9
ContractFive years, $23.5 million plus two club options (Signed March 2015)
View Profile

Another National and another player with injury issues who's been very good when healthy. A series of lower body injuries have limited Adam Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, in those 118 games, he hit .300/.394/.422 (115 OPS+) with 25 doubles and 12 steals. Yeah. The leg injuries have slowed Eaton a bit and taken a bite out of his defensive value. Still, Washington only owes him $8.4 million next season before the club options for 2020 ($9.5 million) and 2021 ($10.5 million) come into play. Not bad value at all.

What would he get this offseason? I feel like one of two things would've happened had Eaton become a free agent this offseason. He would've either signed incredibly early because some team saw him as a great buy-low opportunity and wanted to act quickly, or he would've been stuck still looking for work on Feb. 1. Given the injuries and the fact he turns 30 in a few weeks, I think Eaton would have wound up with a two-year deal at $22 million or so. Denard Span (three years, $31 million) got a similar average annual value three years ago without the lengthy injury history.

8. Julio Teheran
BAL • SP • #49
ContractSix years, $32.4 million plus one club option (Signed February 2014)
View Profile

Gosh, Julio Teheran is a tough one to crack, isn't he? There are days he looks like a bona fide ace and days he makes you wonder how he'll ever get anyone out. Teheran has been close to a league average pitcher the last four years now, throwing 752 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA (104 ERA+) from 2015-18, and the Braves didn't even give him a start in the NLDS this year. There is value in eating innings -- Teheran's never thrown fewer than 175 innings in a full big league season -- but he's yet to take that next step and become a consistent top of the rotation guy. Atlanta will pay him $11.2 million in 2019 before his $12 million club option for 2020 comes into play.

What would he get this offseason? One thing Teheran has going for him is his age. He turns only 28 in January and that would've made him the youngest free-agent starter on the market. And because of that, I think he would've gotten a four or five-year contract this winter. Something like Alex Cobb's four-year, $57 million contract could've worked, with an opt-out after the second year to let Teheran test the market again at age 30 should he finally have that long-awaited breakout.

9. Yan Gomes
CHC • C • #15
ContractSix years, $23 million plus two club options (Signed March 2014)
View Profile

Very quietly, Yan Gomes has become a rock solid two-way big league catcher. He authored a .266/.313/.449 (103 OPS+) batting line with 26 doubles and 16 home runs in 2018, and the defensive stats love him. They love his arm, his blocking, his framing, you name it. At most, the Indians will owe Gomes $27.1 million over the next three seasons if they pick up his 2020 and 2021 options. Not a bad price for a quality catcher. Not a bad price at all.

What would he get this offseason? Gomes would've been a prime "holy cow they gave him how much?" candidate had he become a free agent as scheduled this offseason. Good catchers are extremely hard to find. Gomes would've been the clear cut No. 2 catcher behind Yasmani Grandal, and I think Francisco Cervelli's three-year, $31 million contract would've been the floor here. Three years and $39 million seems with reach too, maybe even three years and $42 million. Gomes turns 32 in July, so he doesn't have age on his side, but good catchers are always in demand.

10. Dee Gordon
2B
ContractFive years, $50 million plus one club option (Signed January 2016)

Boy oh boy, where does Dee Gordon fit? Is he a second baseman or a center fielder? A dynamic leadoff guy or someone you hide at the bottom of the lineup? I'm not quite sure. Gordon posted a .288 on-base percentage this past season and, over the last three years he's hit .285/.315/.357 (86 OPS+) in more than 1,600 plate appearances. The stolen bases (120 for 155) are good. Everything else? Not so much. Gordon is owed $27.1 million from 2019-20 before his $14 million option for 2021 is likely to be bought out for $1 million. Ouch.

What would he get this offseason? Gordon turns 31 in April and slap-hitting speed guys usually don't age all that well. Once their speed begins to slip, forget it, their value plummets. Jarrod Dyson got two years and $7.5 million last offseason and I'm not sure Gordon would've received even that much had he been a free agent this winter. Maybe some team really buys into Dee as a bounce-back candidate and gives something like the one-year, $11.5 million deal the Rangers gave Carlos Gomez in 2017?


I should note that, for the purposes of this piece, both Charlie Blackmon and Eduardo Escobar were excluded from consideration. Both were due to become free agents this offseason, yes, but both signed extensions earlier this year. The Rockies gave Blackmon six years and $108 million in April. The D-Backs gave Escobar three years and $21 million late last month. Neither saw the open market.

Historically, players who sign extensions one year (or less) prior to free agency get free-agent dollars. There are no discounts and that is reflected in Escobar's contract and especially Blackmon's contract. For this post, the intention was to look at players who signed long-term extensions years ago, much earlier in the careers, that are now preventing them from hitting the open market after reaching six years of service time. I doubt any of these players are complaining -- it's nice to get that first big payday out of the way early -- but it does take a little bite out of free agency.