Angels right-hander Jered Weaver has had darn good career, and he's done all that (118 career ERA+ across almost 2,000 innings) despite never having elite-level fastball velocity. As well, that velocity has been in pronounced decline in recent years ...
(Chart via Brooks Baseball)
As you can see, that's a pronounced loss of velocity, especially from 2011 onward. For some of that time, Weaver was able to remain quite effective (he finished third in the AL Cy Young balloting in 2012, for instance). Over the last couple of years, though, Weaver's gun readings have dipped below what may be the level required for continued effectiveness.
That brings us to Wednesday. Against the Dodgers in Cactus League play, Weaver allowed five earned in 2 2/3 innings, which raised his spring ERA to 6.94 after two outings. Obviously, fretting over spring training stats is unwise, but there's also this ...
One scout in attendance has Jered Weaver topping out at 80 mph in two innings today. He threw a 78-mph fastball Austin Barnes hit for a HR.
— Pedro Moura (@pedromoura) March 9, 2016
Yikes. Not optimal. Speaking of his 78-mph offering, here's that particular pitch ...
If the fastball's going to check in at 78 and environs, then you'd best not make it of the center-cut variety.
To be sure, velocities tend to be lower in spring (although Weaver's teammate Garrett Richards was regularly hitting triple digits in his most recent outing), so that's worth keeping in mind. Still, an 80-mph fastball from Weaver would be in keeping with recent trends.
Last season, Weaver averaged 84.3 mph with his fastball, and, in a surely related matter, he ran a career-worst ERA+ of 81 and allowed a hard-hit rate of 30.0 percent. Obviously, if he suffers even more velo loss, then the struggles will likely worsen. Yes, he has command of five pitchers, but Weaver's suffering velocity loss with his breaking stuff, as well.
He's entering into his age-33 season, which is post-prime, if not necessarily ancient. With pitchers, though, it's more about skills retention than age (see 37-year-old John Lackey, for instance). Yes, it's one outing early in spring, but those gun readings are troubling in light of what we already know about Weaver.
The good news for the Angels, such as it is, is that Weaver's going into the final year of his contract, but he's not poised to help them contend in 2016.
