2024 Kentucky Derby start time, odds, preview: Fierceness favored, plus horse profiles, bet strategies

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Mint juleps. Oversized hats. More than 150,000 fans singing My Old Kentucky Home. And 20 of the world's best 3-year-old horses racing for the blanket of roses. The Kentucky Derby is no ordinary sporting event, and this year is no ordinary year for the Kentucky Derby.

Saturday's race will be the 150th running of the Run for the Roses, the country's oldest, continuously held major sporting event. Equal parts party and pageantry, the Derby has been staged every year at Churchill Downs without interruption since the inaugural running on May 17, 1875.

For the sesquicentennial Derby, Churchill Downs has unveiled a new $200 million paddock, which took two years to construct. It is both taller and larger than the previous one.

But the horses remain the heart of the Kentucky Derby, and this year's race features one of the fastest favorites in years. Fierceness, who was last year's champion 2-year-old, is coming off a dominating 13½-length win in the Florida Derby, which earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. The number is higher than either Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify ran in the lead-up to their Derby wins. Fierceness has been installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

His chief rival figures to be Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone, who, unlike Fierceness, has never run a bad race. The most expensive horse in the field -- he was a $2.3 million purchase two years ago -- Sierra Leone does his best running late. He will need to weave his way either through or around 19 other horses in the field to get to the winner's circle. He is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line.

Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom (8-1), Japanese invader Forever Young (10-1) and Blue Grass Stakes runner-up Just a Touch (10-1) round out the top five choices in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.

Below, we'll take you through everything to know about this year's Derby, from profiles of all the horses involved to info about the race and the Road to the Kentucky Derby, to where to find official betting strategy, including win picks and exotic plays, from a host of SportsLine experts.

What to know about the 150th Run for the Roses

What 150th Kentucky Derby
Where Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
Who 20 3-year-old horses
Purse $5 million
Distance 1¼ miles
Post time 6:57 p.m. ET
Network NBC
Weather forecast Partial sunshine with a thunderstorm in spots; high of 79 degrees

Kentucky Derby live odds

As of 12:44 p.m. ET Tuesday. Click here for updated odds throughout the day.

1 Dornoch 20-1
2 Sierra Leone 3-1
3 Mystik Dan 20-1
4 Catching Freedom 8-1
5 Catalytic 30-1
6 Just Steel 20-1
7 Honor Marie 20-1
8 Just a Touch 10-1
~~9 Encino~~ Scratched
10 T O Password 30-1
11 Forever Young 10-1
12 Track Phantom 20-1
13 West Saratoga 50-1
14 Endlessly 30-1
15 Domestic Product 30-1
16 Grand Mo the First 50-1
17 Fierceness 5-2
18 Stronghold 20-1
19 Resilience 20-1
20 Society Man 50-1
21 Epic Ride 30-1

SportsLine expert picks

SportsLine has three great horse racing experts who have locked in their Derby picks. Here's a preview of each:

Michelle Yu, an on-air host and reporter with a background training horses who has provided racing analysis for TVG, HRTV and the Breeders' Cup, enters this year's Kentucky Derby on a roll. She predicted Stronghold's upset win in the Santa Anita Derby en route to a $219.50 payday and smashed the exacta in the Apple Blossom Handicap as part of a $410 score, both in the last month. In the Derby, Yu is fading Fierceness even though he is the 5-2 favorite and won the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths. She also has her eye on a double-digit longshot who "showed some grit" in his last race. Check out Yu's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.

Bob Weir, a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas who is a member of the Beyer Speed Figure-making team, has produced multiple five-figure days at the track over the years, including a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar in 2014 and an $18,000 Pick 5 at Tampa Bay Downs less than five weeks ago. Weir is high on Forever Young at the Derby and keys in on a double-digit underdog who "could be ready for his best." Get Weir's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.

Jody Demling, who has hit the Oaks-Derby double 10 times in the last 15 years, is especially high on a double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Find Demling's full Kentucky Derby wagering strategy at SportsLine.

Road to the Kentucky Derby

The road to Louisville began in September and covered 47 races over three continents. Here are the most significant races of the Kentucky Derby trail:

Nov. 3, Breeders' Cup Juvenile This was the coming-out party for Fierceness, who dominated the biggest juvenile race en route to earning champion 2-year-old honors. He won by more than six lengths over Muth, who would eventually win the Arkansas Derby.

Nov. 25, Kentucky Jockey Club Honor Marie capped off his 2-year-old season with a last-to-first victory. It was his second win in three starts at Churchill Downs.

Dec. 2, Remsen Stakes Dornoch was passed in the stretch by Sierra Leone but stunningly re-rallied to nip Sierra Leone by a nose. Trackside observers widely agree that Dornoch raced on the better part of the track that day (the inside) while Sierra Leone was on the outside.

Feb. 3, Southwest Stakes Mystik Dan rallied on the inside of a muddy Oaklawn Park track to win by eight lengths over Just Steel. He earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort (only Fierceness has run faster), but trackside observers say he benefitted from a biased track.

Feb. 3, Holy Bull Stakes Fierceness was flat in his 3-year-old debut, finishing a dull third as an overwhelming favorite. Domestic Product rallied to finish second.

Feb. 17, Risen Star Stakes This was the best prep race on the Derby trail as the top five runners have reached the Kentucky Derby. Despite a glacial pace up front, Sierra Leone rallied from well back to catch Track Phantom and others. Catching Freedom (third), Resilience (fourth) and Honor Marie (fifth) were also-rans.

March 2, Fountain of Youth Stakes After key scratches whittled the field down to five, Dornoch went gate-to-wire against a soft field in his 2024 debut, winning in a slow time.

March 9, Tampa Bay Derby Domestic Product got up just in time to win a blanket finish over, among others, Grand Mo the First (third). Domestic Product earned an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, which has been widely questioned for being too low.

March 23, Louisiana Derby Catching Freedom rallied from last, outkicking Honor Marie to win. Pace setter Track Phantom faded to fourth.

March 23, Jeff Ruby Steaks Endlessly put in a powerful move around the turn to win going away on Turfway Park's synthetic surface.

March 30, UAE Derby Running wide all the way, Forever Young beat an overmatched field to go a perfect 5-for-5.

March 30, Arkansas Derby Just Steel and Mystik Dan ran second and third respectively behind winner Muth.

March 30, Florida Derby Fierceness dictated a moderate pace and dominated an overmatched field by more than 13 lengths. He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, one of the best Beyers in a Derby prep race in the last 25 years.

April 6, Wood Memorial Resilience validated the Risen Star form with a victory, winning in-hand. Society Man ran second.

April 6, Blue Grass Stakes Sierra Leone rallied powerfully down the stretch to catch Just a Touch and Epic Ride, who were close to a fast pace.

April 6, Santa Anita Derby Stronghold showed guts in beating a watered-down field by a neck.

Kentucky Derby horses (morning-line odds)

1 Dornoch (20-1)

Trainer Danny Gargan
Jockey Luis Saez
Last race Fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes by 6½ lengths
Career record 6 starts: 3 wins, 2 seconds
Career earnings $552,275
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 91 (2023 Remsen Stakes)
Sire Good Magic

If you've followed the road to the 2024 Kentucky Derby at all, you've probably heard the following: Dornoch is a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage. But aside from the bloodlines, Dornoch shares very little with his older brother entering this year's Run for the Roses.

Trained by Danny Gargan, Dornoch first established himself as one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby when he won the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December. In that race he led at the top of the stretch and was passed by Sierra Leone (who eventually became one of the leading contenders for the Derby) but stunningly re-rallied to beat Sierra Leone by a nose. Trackside observers, however, questioned the quality of Dornoch's Remsen victory, saying he benefited from racing on the better part of the track that day (the inside) while Sierra Leone was on the outside.

Dornoch returned after a three-month break in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 2 and beat a soft field in a slow time despite having his own way up front. With Dornoch's Derby spot already locked up, Gargan decided to experiment in the Blue Grass Stakes and tried rating this speed horse behind other horses. The experiment backfired, and Dornoch finished 6½ lengths behind a familiar rival, Sierra Leone.

While Sierra Leone has moved forward as a 3-year-old since the Remsen, Dornoch has not. The Beyer Speed Figures he earned in the Fountain of Youth (90) and Blue Grass (88) fall shy of his winning Beyer from the Remsen (91) and are heading in the wrong direction, a red flag entering the Derby. (By contrast, Mage's speed figures improved entering Louisville.) They are also well shy of the Beyers of the top contenders in the race.

Dornoch will need to run a career-best race just to be in the mix, but Gargan is not known for moving 2-year-olds forward at age 3. His only previous Derby starter, Tax, finished 14th in 2019.

Post-draw analysis

After unsuccessfully trying to rate in the Blue Grass Stakes, Dornoch is expected to show speed in the Derby, and the No. 1 post position will force jockey Luis Saez to quarterhorse Dornoch out of the gate and go straight to the front. The good news is that that Dornoch has done his best running when on the lead. The bad news is that he'll likely have to expend more energy to get there from this post.

No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post since Ferdinand in 1986.

Dornoch drawing the No. 1 post likely will have another effect: speeding up the pace, which isn't good news for the other early speed horses.

2 Sierra Leone (3-1)

Trainer Chad Brown
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione
Last race First in the Blue Grass Stakes by 1½ lengths
Career record 4 starts: 3 wins, 1 second
Career earnings $918,000
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 98 (2024 Blue Grass Stakes)
Sire Gun Runner

Moments after Sierra Leone chased down Just a Touch to win the Blue Grass Stakes, trainer Chad Brown said of the horse, "He's been a star since he's been born." ... See profile at SportsLine.

3 Mystik Dan (20-1)

Trainer Ken McPeek
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.
Last race Third in the Arkansas Derby by 6¼ lengths
Career record 6 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Career earnings $641,360
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 101 (2024 Southwest Stakes)
Sire Goldencents

Trivia question: Excluding the favorite, Fierceness, what horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field owns the best Beyer Speed Figure? The answer is not Blue Grass Stakes winner Sierra Leone nor Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom. The answer is Mystik Dan ... See profile at SportsLine.

4 Catching Freedom (8-1)

Trainer Brad Cox
Jockey Flavien Prat
Last race First in the Louisiana Derby by one length
Career record 5 starts: 3 wins, 1 third
Career earnings $877,350
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 97 (2024 Louisiana Derby)
Sire Constitution

Who's the best closer in the Kentucky Derby field? Sierra Leone? Honor Marie? Analytics suggest the best closer is Catching Freedom ... See profile at SportsLine.

5 Catalytic (30-1)

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey Jose Ortiz
Last race Second in the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths
Career record 3 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds
Career earnings $216,825
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2024 Florida Derby)
Sire Catalina Cruiser

Someone had to finish second to Fierceness in the Florida Derby. That someone was Catalytic ... See profile at SportsLine.

6 Just Steel (20-1)

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey Keith Asmussen
Last race Second in the Arkansas Derby by 2 lengths
Career record 11 starts: 2 wins, 4 seconds, 1 third
Career earnings $724,545
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 95 (2024 Arkansas Derby)
Sire Justify

If experience wins this year's Kentucky Derby, then Just Steel will win the Run for the Roses by a Secretariat-like margin ... See profile at SportsLine.

7 Honor Marie (20-1)

Trainer Whit Beckman
Jockey Ben Curtis
Last race Second in the Louisiana Derby by one length
Career record 5 starts: 2 wins, 2 seconds
Career earnings $526,175
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 96 (2024 Louisiana Derby)
Sire Honor Code

Honor Marie has become the biggest buzz horse of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Why? ... See profile at SportsLine.

8 Just a Touch (10-1)

Trainer Brad Cox
Jockey Florent Geroux
Last race Second in the Blue Grass Stakes by 1½ lengths
Career record 3 starts: 1 win, 2 seconds
Career earnings $281,700
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 96 (2024 Blue Grass Stakes)
Sire Justify

How can you tell that Brad Cox had big hopes for Just a Touch early on? ... See profile at SportsLine.

9 Encino (20-1)

Encino was scratched following training Tuesday, putting Epic Ride into the Kentucky Derby ... See profile at SportsLine.

10 T O Password (30-1)

Trainer Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey Kazushi Kimura
Last race First in the Fukuryu Stakes by a head
Career record 2 starts: 2 wins
Career earnings $163,339
Best career Beyer Speed Figure N/A
Sire Copano Rickey

He's undefeated and is coming off a head victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, which was enough to earn his spot in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby ... See profile at SportsLine.

11 Forever Young (10-1)

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey Ryusei Sakai
Last race First in the UAE Derby by two lengths
Career record 5 starts: 5 wins
Career earnings $2,049,451
Best career Beyer Speed Figure N/A
Sire Real Steel

History will not be on Forever Young's side when the starting gate opens in the 2024 Kentucky Derby ... See profile at SportsLine.

12 Track Phantom (20-1)

Trainer Steve Asmussen
Jockey Joel Rosario
Last race Fourth in the Louisiana Derby by 2½ lengths
Career record 7 starts: 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third
Career earnings $405,000
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 94 (2024 Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby)
Sire Quality Road

After Track Phantom went wire-to-wire in winning the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes over the winter at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, he emerged as one of the leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby ... See profile at SportsLine.

13 West Saratoga (50-1)

Trainer Larry Demeritte
Jockey Jesus Castanon
Last race Second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks by four lengths
Career record 10 starts: 2 wins, 5 seconds, 1 third
Career earnings $460,140
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 85 (2024 Jeff Ruby Steaks)
Sire Exaggerator

Here's the case for 50-1 longshot West Saratoga ... See profile at SportsLine.

14 Endlessly (30-1)

Trainer Michael McCarthy
Jockey Umberto Rispoli
Last race First in the Jeff Ruby Steaks by four lengths
Career record 6 starts: 5 wins
Career earnings $707,200
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 91 (2024 Jeff Ruby Steaks)
Sire Oscar Performance

Trainer Michael McCarthy knows a good dirt horse when he sees one ... See profile at SportsLine.

15 Domestic Product (30-1)

Trainer Chad Brown
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Last race First in the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck
Career record 5 starts: 2 wins, 1 second
Career earnings $314,200
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 87 (2024 Holy Bull Stakes)
Sire Practical Joke

The last time we saw Domestic Product enter a starting gate, Scottie Scheffler had not yet won on the PGA Tour this season ... See profile at SportsLine.

16 Grand Mo the First (50-1)

Trainer Victor Barboza Jr.
Jockey Emisael Jaramillo
Last race Third in the Florida Derby by 16 lengths
Career record 6 starts: 2 wins, 4 thirds
Career earnings $214,650
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 87 (2024 Florida Derby)
Sire Uncle Mo

If pedigrees and bloodlines alone won Kentucky Derbies, then Grand Mo the First would be one of the favorites instead one of the biggest longshots ... See profile at SportsLine.

17 Fierceness (5-2)

Trainer Todd Pletcher
Jockey John Velazquez
Last race First in the Florida Derby by 13½ lengths
Career record 5 starts: 3 wins, 1 third
Career earnings $1,703,850
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 110 (2024 Florida Derby)
Sire City of Light

Handicapping the 2024 Kentucky Derby has to start with the favorite, Fierceness. Conventional wisdom suggests that if he runs his race, then everyone else is running for second. That's a big if ... See profile at SportsLine.

18 Stronghold (20-1)

Trainer Phil D'Amato
Jockey Antonio Fresu
Last race First in the Santa Anita Derby by a neck
Career record 6 starts: 3 wins, 3 seconds
Career earnings $827,200
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 89 (2024 Sunland Derby and Santa Anita Derby)
Sire Ghostzapper

With six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert barred yet again from entering his horses in the Derby, the remaining West Coast-based horses have been largely dismissed this year on the Derby trail. The Phil D'Amato-trained Stronghold emerged as the best of the West ... See profile at SportsLine.

19 Resilience (20-1)

Trainer Bill Mott
Jockey Junior Alvarado
Last race First in the Wood Memorial by 2¼ lengths
Career record 6 starts: 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third
Career earnings $494,630
Best career Beyer Speed Figure 90 (2024 Risen Star Stakes and Wood Memorial)
Sire Into Mischief

Trainer Bill Mott built a Hall of Fame career by not rushing his young horses to do things they're not physically ready for ... See profile at SportsLine.