For the first time in a long time we were actually getting excited about the Jets passing game. Sam Darnold had upside as a passer, Robby Anderson was a popular breakout pick, and Jamison Crowder caught 14 passes in Week 1.
On Thursday that came crashing down with the announcement that Darnold had been ruled out for Week 2 with mono and could miss multiple weeks in the future.
Adam Gase said he might use multiple quarterbacks but Trevor Siemian figures to see the most snaps. Regardless of who takes the snaps under center it will be a serious downgrade for the passing game and the offense in general. Especially if Le'Veon Bell's should injury turns out to be serious.
Crowder was one of the most popular waiver wire adds at receiver but now I view him as a mid range No. 3 in PPR and a flex at best in non-PPR. Current projections have him catching five passes for 56 yards with less than a 50% chance of reaching the end zone. Anderson's stock falls even further as his likelihood of catching a bomb takes a hit. I project him as a low-end flex with three catches for 45 and only a slightly better chance of scoring than Crowder.
The timing of his is unfortunate if you were counting on either of these receivers in Week 2 with waivers already running. Nevertheless, I have a few streaming options still widely available you could use in case of emergency. If you're in a more shallow league, see if John Brown (84%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (78%) or Courtland Sutton (76%)
Week 1 WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 2 at this time. Here's what it means:
Sammy Watkins went bananas without Hill and we know what Travis Kelce will be. The question this week is whether Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson step up.
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If Williams can't go there would be an increased opportunity for Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman but I'd just expect more consolidation between Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler.
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Shepard is in the concussion protocol which would make Cody Latimer the Giants No. 1 receiver. He'd still be the No. 3 target behind Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley.
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Funchess is heading to IR with a broken collar bone. This opens up an opportunity for Deon Cain and Parris Campbell but they're only worth speculative adds in deeper leagues.
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With Wilson hurt again there are plenty of targets available in Miami. The question is whether anyone wants to be tied to that offense. Let's see how they look in Week 2 before deciding.
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Numbers to Know
- 3 - Targets for Adam Thielen, Mike Williams, Will Fuller and Marquise Goodwin. I had volume concerns about all four of these receivers coming into Week 1 and those are only growing.
- 2 - Targets for Tyler Lockett in Week 1. I'm glad he caught the 44-yard touchdown but this was very concerning. D.K. Metcalf was treated like the No. 1 receiver in Seattle.
- 46.8 - PPR Fantasy points for Sammy Watkins in his first game without Tyreek Hill. You shouldn't expect that moving forward, but you should consider Watkins a top-12 receiver until Hill returns.
- 14 - Snaps for Marquise Brown on Sunday. There are two ways to look at this. Either you're impressed with what Brown did on so few snaps or you're concerned he didn't play more. I'm somewhere in the middle but mostly the former.
- 210 - Career receiving yards for John Ross before Sunday's 158-yard performance.
- 1.1 - Dede Westbrook's average targeted air yards in Week 1. I'm hoping for more downfield looks in Week 2.
- 60.6% - Tyrell Williams' share of the Raiders air yards in Week 1. That was the best mark in the league.
- 78.9% - Share of Panthers targets that went to D.J. Moore, Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen. That's a problem for Curtis Samuel if it continues.
- 14.1 - Larry Fitzgerald's yards per reception against Detroit. He hasn't averaged better than 12.4 since 2011.
Matchups that matter
Williams' breakout performance against the Broncos should be enough to raise his ownership above 90% and you shouldn't think twice about starting him. Chris Conley, D.J. Chark and Dede Westbrook all scored against the Chiefs with Conley and Chark both beating the secondary on the types of deep routes Williams' excels at.
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You're not benching Adams, this is more like preemptive counseling. This matchup against Minnesota could very well be another disappointing performance from your No. 1 receiver. Julio Jones only had six catches for 31 yards on 11 targets in Week 1. Hopefully if Adams does struggle he can salvage the week with a score like Jones did.
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Moore's 26% target share in Week 1 was very encouraging and could lead to a big boom in a Week 2 matchup against Tampa Bay. I don't believe the Buccaneers defense is improved because they shut down the 49ers in Week 1. Cam Newton, Moore and the rest of the Panthers should shine on Thursday night.
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Waiver Wire Targets
Latimer earned eight targets in Week 1 with Sterling Shepard on the field. Now Shepard is in the concussion protocol, which could leave Latimer as the team's No. 1 receiver. Even with Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram dominating targets there's room for Latimer to put up No. 3 receiver numbers. If Shepard is out I prefer him to both Jets in non-PPR and Anderson in PPR.
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Beasley saw nine targets on Sunday and now gets a matchup against a Giants secondary that is very bad outside of Janoris Jenkins. He's a poor man's version of what Crowder was in Week 1 but he now has a better quarterback. Beasley has a higher floor than either Jets' receiver but I'd still prefer both Jets in non-PPR.
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If you have a lot of Lockett you probably didn't like what Metcalf did in Week 1. He earned six targets to Lockett's two and turned those six into 89 yards. I'm very skeptical he'll continue to out-target Lockett but we need to add him just in case.
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Unlike Metcalf, McLaurin doesn't face much competition for establishing himself as the No. 1 receiver in Washington. He popped on Sunday with five catches for 125 yards and a score and had his man beat for another long pass that Case Keenum missed. It will take at least one more week before I'll feel comfortable starting him, but I love the idea of stashing him in a deeper league.
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Yuck. Let's be real, the Dolphins can't really be that bad all year, right? Parker was one of the few bright spots on Sunday with a circus catch for the Dolphins biggest gain. He is the No. 1 receiver on this team and they'll have to be pass-happy as much as they'll be trailing.
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DFS Plays
So, let's talk about Boyd's price. After one week he's now cheaper than John Ross on FanDuel. What did Boyd do wrong? He only had 11 targets and caught eight of them for 60 yards. Yes, Ross was much better but there should be no question who you play this week. Tyler Boyd is still the No. 1 receiver in Cincinnati until A.J. Green returns.
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While Boyd's value is a result of an overreaction, Williams' is a result of him balling out on Monday night, after pricing was released. He is a No. 1 receiver with a fantastic matchup and a solidified role. He should probably be $1,500 more than he is.
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I'm hopeful people are worried about Smith-Schuster's "poor performance" in Week 1 against the Patriots. He's one of the cheaper elite receivers and plays the team that just allowed John Ross to look like an All-Pro receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the No. 1 receiver this week. If his ownership projection has him below 10% he'll be in all of my tournament lineups.
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Westbrook was a bit of a disappointment as chalk last week, but he did receive the most targets from Garnder Minshew. His price stayed low on both sites, he has another good matchup, and I'm hoping his ownership will drop because of the lack of downfield looks. I'm not as excited about Westbrook as I was, but I still expect him to be the best Jaguars receiver.
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Heath's Projections
Non-PPR Rank | PPR Rank | WR | Non-PPR FPTs | PPR FPTs |
4 | 1 | 13.92 | 21.90 | |
3 | 2 | 14.02 | 20.90 | |
1 | 3 | 14.36 | 20.86 | |
2 | 4 | 14.12 | 20.63 | |
6 | 5 | 12.30 | 18.45 | |
5 | 6 | 12.46 | 18.15 | |
7 | 7 | 11.89 | 17.45 | |
12 | 8 | Adam Thielen | 11.60 | 17.39 |
9 | 9 | Sammy Watkins | 11.83 | 17.35 |
13 | 10 | 11.18 | 17.21 | |
8 | 11 | 11.89 | 17.20 | |
11 | 12 | 11.64 | 17.13 | |
10 | 13 | 11.79 | 17.11 | |
14 | 14 | 11.15 | 17.04 | |
16 | 15 | 11.04 | 16.84 | |
17 | 16 | D.J. Moore | 10.88 | 16.13 |
15 | 17 | T.Y. Hilton | 11.13 | 15.74 |
18 | 18 | Tyrell Williams | 10.69 | 15.28 |
26 | 19 | Dede Westbrook | 9.68 | 15.18 |
21 | 20 | 10.27 | 15.10 | |
19 | 21 | 10.57 | 14.92 | |
20 | 22 | Tyler Lockett | 10.36 | 14.55 |
29 | 23 | Larry Fitzgerald | 8.98 | 14.45 |
22 | 24 | 10.25 | 14.31 |
