If Odell Beckham wasn't thrilled about not getting a ton of targets with the Browns, he seemingly made a curious choice in agreeing to sign with the Rams, a move announced Thursday, just three days after he was granted his release by the Browns. Beckham signed a one-year deal after reportedly choosing between the Rams and Packers, and it was a lot easier to see a path to significant production for Beckham in Green Bay.
Seeing it in L.A. requires a bit more work. The Rams have been right around the middle of the pack in offensive plays per game (16th) and pass rate (14th), and Cooper Kupp ranks fourth in the league target share at 32%, with Robert Woods taking on a 22% share, so there isn't exactly a ton of opportunity available as things currently stand. Beckham is, of course, a more talented player than Tyler Higbee or Van Jefferson, so it's fair to assume that he'll see a larger share than either (14%), but if he's going to be Fantasy relevant, something else will have to change for the Rams offense.
Of course, we've seen it before, in stretches, at least. In 2018, Woods and Brandin Cooks both had over 1,200 yards while Kupp had 566 yards in just eight games. And, Matthew Stafford is playing at a very high level right now, averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt with a 7.2% touchdown rate, so if he were to sustain those rates, it might be possible for Beckham to join the Rams and make an impact for Fantasy. He probably won't sustain quite those rates, but this move probably helps Stafford's chances of avoiding too much regression, seeing as he now has even more talent around him.
But if Beckham is going to become a key part of this offense, it'll probably have to happen at someone else's expense, and that someone else is probably going to have to be Kupp. Woods' 22% target share is right around where he typically has been -- he was at 22.8% in 2018 -- but Kupp's current 32% rate is well above anything we've ever seen in this offense. When Cooks had 1,204 yards in 2018 as the No. 2 option, he had a 20.6% rate. This has typically been an offense that spreads the ball around, but that has changed this season, and it's made Kupp the highest-scoring non-QB in PPR leagues by nearly 50 points.
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Kupp was probably never going to sustain a 140-catch, 1,924-yard, 19-touchdown pace -- probably -- but you could still see him being the No. 1 WR in Fantasy the rest of the way. Now that becomes a bit harder to see. If Beckham is going to have a big enough role to where he matters for Fantasy, it's probably going to look a lot more like 2018, when all three primary WRs for the Rams had a target share between 20-23%. Kupp should remain the lead target and an obvious must-start Fantasy WR, but this could certainly hurt his value.
Or it could mean Beckham just isn't going to matter much. He's playing through injuries to both shoulders after coming off a torn ACL, and now he's switching teams in the middle of the season. Wide receivers who switch teams in the offseason tend to see a small but noticeable drop in production in their first season with a new team, and doing so midseason is almost certainly an even greater challenge. Beckham is a 29-year-old who has suffered quite a few injuries in recent seasons and hasn't been a difference maker in Fantasy since 2018.
I don't want to completely write off the possibility that Beckham might just be the Rams best WR, because at his best, he was on the shortlist for best in the league. It's just asking a lot for him to join a team midseason, upend the established order, and return to being a superstar.
Beckham is still quite talented, and I wouldn't exactly be shocked if he was very good for the Rams. But it's not necessarily the most likely outcome. If you value him as a WR3 moving forward, you won't be too disappointed, and there might even be room for you to be pleasantly surprised. But Beckham has a lot to overcome, so don't overreact. He's absolutely worth adding in the 25% of leagues where he is on waivers, but don't treat him like he's about to be a must-start Fantasy WR.
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