The biggest winners at the trade deadline were of course the Astros and Reds. They acquired the scarcest and most valuable commodity in the game today, a front-line starting pitcher, and Zack Greinke and Trevor Bauer should serve them well going forward.
But neither pitcher's value changes all that much in Fantasy. Greinke is heading to a better team but leaving the league that favors pitchers. Bauer is joining the more favorable league but will now be pitching in a bandbox of a ballpark. So you could say the pros and cons cancel out, but the truth is they're of a caliber that's more or less immune to their surroundings. We know what they are, and what they are is great.
So they're not among my biggest winners and losers at the trade deadline, me being a guy who writes about Fantasy Baseball. In fact, many of the biggest winners and losers were players who didn't even change hands. For some, that's exactly why they won or lost.
Yes, unlike past trade deadlines, a rule change makes this year's final. Passing through waivers is no longer a viable August workaround. Players are where they are, and where they are is where they'll stay. It's refreshing, in a way.
Let's figure out what it all means.
Winners
1) Josh VanMeter
Feels like I've taken every possible occasion to write about this guy, so you're probably tired of hearing about him by now. But the Reds couldn't have made their intentions for him any clearer with their maneuvering at the deadline. As if trading Yasiel Puig at VanMeter's first introduction to the outfield wasn't enough, they then moved Scooter Gennett, freeing up a more natural position for the 24-year-old. Because he bats left-handed, I don't know that it's safe to assume VanMeter will play every day, but he's working toward it with three homers, two doubles and four walks in his past seven games -- this from a guy who had a near-1.200 OPS at Triple-A this year.
And now that VanMeter has a path as an infielder, it's fair to wonder if former first-round pick Phillip Ervin will also get the chance to play more regularly. His .353 batting average as a part-timer is bordering on ridiculous, of course, but his high line-drive rate and opposite-field mindset both lend themselves to a high BABIP. He's not entirely punchless either.
2) Call-ups Bo Bichette and Trent Grisham
Bichette was probably coming up either way, right? Sure, Eric Sogard's relocation to the Rays was what ultimately brought it about, but it's fair to assume the Blue Jays wanted their trade assets on display only up to the point they couldn't be traded anymore.
Nonetheless, Bichette is here and he's spectacular, as evidenced by him coming within a triple of the cycle in only his third game in the big leagues. His bat skills are plus-plus. His power, which didn't always manifest during his rapid climb up the minor-league ladder, nonetheless rates as plus. He steals bases. He looks cool. He's everything you want a hitting prospect to be, and now he's batting leadoff for the Blue Jays. Regardless of need, you have to find a spot for him on your roster just in case his splash is of the extra-splashy variety.
Trent Grisham wasn't as widely anticipated, but his numbers at Triple-A this year are something to behold. A former first-round pick, he has suddenly put it all together with big-time power production, plus on-base ability and even a few steals.
In a weirdly indirect way, the Brewers' decision to trade platoon first baseman Jesus Aguilar has opened up playing time for Grisham, who's expected to get the call Thursday. Whether he's in the lineup every day depends somewhat on his production, but Ryan Braun is expected to see more time at first base to accommodate him.
3) Jose Leclerc
This one may fly under the radar since it's not in response to some headline-grabbing deal, but the Braves did acquire Chris Martin to fortify their bullpen Tuesday. And Martin was one of the leading candidates for saves with Shawn Kelley sidelined indefinitely by a strained biceps. Now, only one such candidate remains, and it's the same one who was piling up saves with gusto down the stretch last season.
I say this even while acknowledging Jesse Chavez got the save Wednesday night -- a game in which Leclerc didn't work at all. It was Leclerc's third off day in a row, in fact, after he blew a save Sunday, but manager Chris Woodward blamed that particular outcome on the fact Leclerc was pitching for the fourth time in five days. The extra rest is presumably Woodward's way of compensating for the overuse.
Skills-wise, it's no contest. There's nothing exceptional about Chavez, who allows plenty of contact and much of it in the air. Leclerc, of course, lost his grip on the closer role with a miserable April, but since then, he has a 3.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 14.1 K/9, which are closer numbers by any measure.
4) Zac Gallen and, by extension, Elieser Hernandez
In the most surprising deadline deal, the Marlins decided they shouldn't have nice things after all, flipping Gallen, their miracle find in the Marcell Ozuna deal a year ago who dominated the heavy-hitting PCL to the tune of a 1.77 ERA and was just beginning to find his footing in the majors, to the Diamondbacks for a talented but raw shortstop prospect by the name of Jazz Chisholm. May no one ever accuse Derek Jeter of playing it safe.
In what may go down as my most regrettable call of 2019, I recently had this to say about Gallen:
"Worse yet, none of those starts has lasted six innings, which is sort of the bare minimum for recording a victory. The odds are already so stacked against Marlins pitchers in that regard that Gallen has virtually no chance of making an impact in Fantasy if these tendencies continue. I haven't totally cooled on the upside -- it just doesn't look like it's in the cards for him this year."
Since then, he has delivered back-to-back starts of not just six innings, but seven, and oh yeah, he's not with the Marlins anymore. The Diamondbacks are respectable enough to deliver him some victories as long as he doesn't go back to pitching five innings at a time.
Meanwhile, Gallen's removal from the Marlins rotation means Elieser Hernandez's spot is secure even when Pablo Lopez returns from a shoulder strain, which he's gearing up to do. Hernandez has had a couple meltdowns while working out of the bullpen, but in six starts, he has a 3.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. Pretty good, right? Well, in nine starts at Triple-A, he had a 1.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 12.9 K/9, so yeah, he deserves a shot.
5) Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe and especially Wil Myers
Since the start of the season, it was obvious the the Padres had too many corner outfielders, and even with them choosing to phase out Myers over the past month, Reyes and Renfroe were still forced to sit on occasion.
Both should be fixtures for their respective teams now. Reyes immediately becomes the home run leader for the Indians, who have been making due with an impoverished outfield all season. Renfroe is probably good for another 15-20 homers as a full-timer.
Myers will see the biggest boost of any of them, effectively claiming Reyes' at-bats. He lost his job for a reason -- his strikeout rate is out of control -- but we've known him to be better than this. He at least has a chance now to reclaim his 30-homer, 20-steal form, which makes him worth a flier in five-outfielder leagues.
Other winners: Shane Greene, Nicholas Castellanos, Derek Fisher, Justus Sheffield, Corey Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon and the four lefties who could have been traded out of or forced to forfeit the closer role (Will Smith, Josh Hader, Felipe Vazquez and Taylor Rogers)
Losers
1) Scooter Gennett
There's no sugarcoating it: Gennett has been a disaster since coming back from the groin strain that sidelined him for the first half of the season. But at least you had hope, right? His studly performance last year didn't come out of nowhere seeing as he did more or less the same thing for the final two-thirds of the 2017 season. In the context of a 162-game season, 69 at-bats is nothing, and the Reds seemed committed to having him play through it even with the emergence of some interesting second base alternatives (VanMeter being among them).
So much for their commitment.
What effectively kills whatever value Gennett had left is the worst-case venue change. Cincinnati is known for having one of the most homer-friendly parks, San Francisco for having by far the least homer-friendly. Gennett averaged just 377 feet on his home runs last year -- an especially low number for a player with 20-plus -- and, well, that's not going to fly in San Francisco (no pun intended). Factor in a dismal supporting cast led by ... who, Mike Yastrzemski? Yeah, second base isn't so thin that you need to wait out what looks to be a depressing finish.
2) Displaced closers Luke Jackson and Roenis Elias
This one is pretty straightforward. Relievers who are in line for saves are valuable, and relievers that aren't in line for saves ... aren't. OK, so they may still be valuable if they deliver exceptional ratios, but Jackson and Elias certainly don't fit the bill. Each was only closing because his team didn't have anyone better.
And the Mariners still don't, for what it's worth. Elias is done closing because he himself was traded to a team (the Nationals) that already has a closer, and one of the disappointments of this year's trade deadline is there are no heirs apparent for the vacated closer spots, be it for the Mariners, the Tigers or the Marlins. Hunter Strickland, who might have been a candidate to close for the Mariners in a more just world, is instead following Elias to Washington.
Jackson himself wasn't traded, but he's sure to be ousted for new acquisition Shane Greene, who has put together a 1.18 ERA as the Tigers closer this year. The switch is happening not a moment too soon either given that Jackson allowed multiple runs for the third time in four appearances Wednesday. He might fare reasonably well in middle relief given that he at least offers a high strikeout rate, but not so well that you should hold onto him.
3) Clint Frazier
In the days leading up to the trade deadline, after it was already apparent the Giants were at least pulling back on the idea of trading Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith, I decided Clint Frazier was the most likely player to be traded and said so on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. He had seemingly worn out his welcome in New York, drawing the ire of fans and media for some defensive miscues, yet had more or less mashed at the plate. Some team could use him, and that team isn't the Yankees, especially now that Mike Tauchman has emerged as a useful piece.
Long story short, I expected him to be a full-time starter somewhere in the majors once the deadline had passed and to hopefully contribute 12-15 homers the rest of the way. Now, I'm not sure he'll make another start in the big leagues this year.
4) Madison Bumgarner
The Giants think they're contenders, clearly. Bumgarner and closer Will Smith are both free agents at season's end, and yet both are still on the Giants. Sure, they've had a strong July, which has technically put them in the thick of the wild card race, but their best hitter is ... well, it may be the guy I just put No. 1 on this list of biggest losers, Scooter Gennett. It's not Brandon Belt, who's slugging about .400. It's not Buster Posey, who barely has a .700 OPS. They're trotting out the formerly released Pablo Sandoval, who was brought back mostly as a goodwill gesture, in the three-hole. Sure, they have Bumgarner, but their best pitcher after him is, who, Jeff Samardzija? Tyler Beede, maybe? Oh, and they just traded two valuable bullpen pieces in Sam Dyson and Mark Melancon. Whatever are they thinking?
Even with their recent surge, their faults have led to only a 6-7 record for Bumgarner, and wins are still the most valuable thing a pitcher can contribute in traditional Fantasy leagues. There was hope he could be a big winner for a contender, having regained some velocity and strikeout ability this season, but those hopes were for naught.
5) Jesus Aguilar and anyone else who plays first base for the Rays
Is this actually what the Rays needed? Another guy to man first base? Because by my count, they had about three too many already.
They love their infielders, man. What has Eric Sogard done since going there? They're still stuck on Mike Brosseau. What's happening at second base is relevant to the first base discussion because, um, Brandon Lowe is coming back from a bruised shin eventually. Where do they plan to put him? Nate Lowe is still hanging around -- and making worthwhile contributions when he actually does play, by the way. Travis d'Arnaud has been playing first base more often than catcher, believe it or not, and Ji-Man Choi still finds his way into the lineup from time to time.
You thought Aguilar's playing time was limited in Milwaukee? About the only one of these players who figures to have much value in standard mixed leagues going forward is d'Arnaud.
Other losers: Zack Wheeler, Isan Diaz, Jason Heyward, Daniel Hudson
