Imagine a world in which the Big Ten is considered to be the best college football conference in the country. Now imagine a scenario within that world in which winning the best conference in the country wasn't enough to earn you a spot to play for a national championship.

That's the scenario both Wisconsin and Penn State are dealing with on Saturday night.

There's a realistic chance that the winner of this game will not be selected to compete in the College Football Playoff, even though they themselves are two of the four Big Ten teams currently in the top seven of the rankings.

It could be Rose Bowl or bust for both of these teams.

Storylines

Wisconsin: The Badgers have played one of the most difficult schedules in the country this season, and they came out the other side with fewer scars than they should have. They won the Big Ten West with a 7-2 record in conference play (10-2 overall), and the only two losses were an overtime loss to No. 2 Ohio State and a seven-point loss to No. 5 Michigan in Ann Arbor. It's a team that's been led by its defense -- one of the best in the country -- and an offense that looks to grind you down little by little over the course of a 60-minute game. It's the same formula the Badgers will be looking to use to beat Penn State on Saturday night, but even if it's ranked ahead of Penn State right now, Wisconsin's odds of reaching the playoff are likely worse than Penn State's simply because of those two losses.

Penn State: When Penn State beat Ohio State in October, many wrote it off as a fluke win. It made sense because Ohio State had been the better team for the first three quarters of that game, but Penn State dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring the Buckeyes 17-0. It has continued to dominate opponents since, winning its next five games by an average of 30.2 points per game. The Nittany Lions enter the Big Ten title game on an eight-game win streak, and a ninth straight win could vault them into the College Football Playoff. The reason I believe Penn State still has a chance at a CFP berth is that, unlike both Michigan and Wisconsin, it actually has a win over Ohio State.

Prediction

These are two similar teams, and both are quite good, but I'm leaning in Penn State's direction for this one. The simple reason is that while both have strong defenses, Penn State's offense has been a bit more explosive than Wisconsin's this season. So in what should be a low-scoring affair in which one or two big plays could be the difference makers in the final outcome, I tend to trust the Penn State offense a bit more right now. Pick: Penn State +2.5


No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 6 Wisconsin, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Line
Wisconsin -2.5