The Temple Owls will look to build on an impressive win when they host the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the AAC opener for both clubs Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. ET. Temple is a six-point favorite after holding at seven most of the week, while the over-under for total points scored has fallen to 53.5 after opening at 55. Temple is coming off one of the biggest upsets of the college football season as it defeated Maryland 35-14 on the road as a 17-point underdog to earn its first win of the season. Tulsa is looking to snap a two-game losing skid and is coming off a disappointing performance in a 29-20 home loss to Arkansas State. Before you make any Temple vs. Tulsa picks, check out what SportsLine senior analyst Josh Nagel has to say.

He's off to a hot start in college football already, hitting 65 percent of his selections against the spread through the first three weeks. Moreover, he has had a keen eye for the tendencies of these two programs, with a 6-0 spread record in games involving Temple or Tulsa.

Last week, Nagel advised SportsLine members that Temple was a dangerous 17-point road underdog against Maryland following two close losses. The result: The Owls won outright 35-14 for one of the biggest upsets of the season, and those who followed Nagel's advice never broke a sweat.

Now, he has examined the Temple vs. Tulsa odds and released a confident point-spread selection, which he's only sharing at SportsLine.

Nagel knows the Owls suffered tough-luck home losses in the waning moments against Villanova and Buffalo to start their season, but they responded in dominant fashion against a previously-unbeaten Maryland club. The Terrapins ran all over their first two opponents, but Temple crowded the line of scrimmage and dared them to make plays in the passing game. Maryland couldn't respond and was held to just 50 rushing yards through three quarters. 

Temple also got a boost from backup quarterback Anthony Russo, who learned just before kickoff that he would be starting in place of Frank Nutile, who missed the game with an undisclosed injury. Russo shook off an early pick-six to throw for 228 yards and a touchdown. Ryquell Armstead led a balanced rushing attack with 118 yards on 26 carries.

But this impressive showing doesn't mean the Owls will cover the spread against what should be a desperate Tulsa club. The Golden Hurricane (1-2) are coming off a listless performance in a 29-20 home loss to Arkansas State. They were felled by three turnovers that led to a 20-point deficit. Tulsa rallied with 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but the Red Wolves held on for the win.

Even so, the Golden Hurricane put together a strong opening drive for a touchdown and showed a balanced run game that racked up 167 yards. Shamari Brooks led the way with 115 yards on 25 carries. They also competed well with powerful Texas two weeks ago before falling 28-21 as a 24-point road underdog.

Nagel has analyzed all the key factors in this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning under, he has unearthed a critical factor that causes one side of the spread to hit hard. He's only sharing it at SportsLine.

So who wins Tulsa-Temple? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to support Thursday, all from the expert who's 6-0 in picks involving Temple and Tulsa.