Over the next few weeks, ahead of the first College Football Playoff Rankings release on Nov. 1, we will be predicting what the top 25 would look like if the CFP Selection Committee started early. It is a warmup act for the warmup act, which are the CFP Rankings releases before the final one.
Note: Predictions in this post are based only on results to this point, so they do not reflect the final forecast for the playoff, which can be found here.
Here, we will try to emphasize the same criteria the committee uses. That will be difficult because, as we have learned, the committee can be all over the map. Sometimes, it decides that head-to-head record matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, strength of schedule matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes, relative dominance matters; sometimes, it doesn't. Sometimes it's about game control -- whatever that is -- or recency bias or ... ah, you get the idea.
What we have learned is that this process is highly subjective. It is much more subjective than the process that the basketball committee uses, which is what the football committee was modeled after.
With all of that in mind, here is what I think the top 25 would look like this week.
1. Alabama: A very comfortable win at Arkansas moves the Crimson Tide up to the top spot.
2. Ohio State: There is something about Indiana that brings out the worst in Ohio State. Of course, if the worst in Ohio State is a 21-point win, the rest of college football could be in trouble.
3. Clemson: The Tigers are pretty much neck-and-neck with Texas A&M. I'm keeping the Tigers here because they beat Auburn at Auburn.
4. Texas A&M: The Aggies needed overtime but knocked off Tennessee. That goes with wins over Auburn and Arkansas to give them a pretty good schedule so far.
5. Michigan: Jim Harbaugh's bunch laid the worst beatdown in FBS-vs.-FBS football in the current century, pasting Rutgers 78-0.
6. Tennessee: The Vols have played the best schedule and haven't been beaten in regulation yet.
7. Washington: U-Dub stuck it to Oregon big time. There is a new beast in the Pac-12.
8. Louisville: The Cardinals took the week off and watched as their best remaining opponent took it on the chin.
9. Wisconsin: The Badgers had the week off to prepare for a visit from Ohio State.
10. Virginia Tech: Justin Fuente's first year is off to a pretty good start. The Hokies lost to Tennessee in Bristol but just pounded North Carolina in Chapel Hill to announce themselves as the favorite in the ACC Coastal Division.
11. Florida State: The Seminoles blocked a potential game-tying extra point to beat rival Miami. They have split four games against teams in these rankings.
12. Ole Miss: If Ole Miss could hold a lead, it might be at the top of these rankings. Both of its losses came after jumping out to big early leads. They took the week off preparing for trips to Arkansas and LSU.
13. West Virginia: The Mountaineers haven't lost yet but haven't been all that impressive in winning either. Their last two wins, over BYU and Kansas State, have come by a total of four points.
14. Arkansas: The Razorbacks have only lost to Alabama and Texas A&M but weren't overly competitive in those losses.
15. Arizona State: ASU is coming off a win over UCLA and finds itself in a three-way tie for first in the Pac-12 South.
16. Oklahoma: The Sooners have played a pretty good schedule, although Houston's loss damages it some. They held off a Texas rally to avenge last season's loss to their rivals.
17. Boise State: Nobody is surprised that these Broncos are also playing well. They have beaten both Oregon State and Washington State from the Pac-12 and that Wazzu win looks better this week after the pounding the Cougars gave Stanford.
18. North Carolina: UNC apparently got a little too fired up over the win at FSU because Virginia Tech took the Tar Heels to the woodshed.
19. Navy: The Midshipmen knocked Houston out of playoff contention and may be in line for a New Year's Six game themselves.
20. Houston: Goodbye playoffs. The Cougars now need two Navy losses just to open the door to winning the West Division of the AAC. Winning the league title is a prerequisite to earning the Group of Five spot in the New Year's Six.
21. Georgia: The Bulldogs took care of business in a hurricane-delayed game at South Carolina.
22. Miami: The Hurricanes failed their first test of the season at home to Florida State. Their fans were in midseason form though, throwing garbage from the stands late in the contest.
23. Auburn: Most people think coach Gus Malzahn is out of a job at season's end, but the Tigers' only losses so far have come to Clemson and Texas A&M, and they beat LSU (costing Les Miles his job).
24. Western Michigan: The Broncos won the state championship of Illinois by beating NIU. They have earlier wins at Northwestern and Illinois.
25. Nebraska: Mike Riley has the Cornhuskers playing better in his second year, but they haven't really been tested yet. This week begins a stretch of three out of four games on the road.