Stanford running back Bryce Love is off to a fantastic start to the 2017 season.
Every week, Love is ripping off long touchdown runs and piling up yardage, and with Stanford rebounding from a 1-2 start to win four straight, Love has solidified his spot in the Heisman conversation.
It's possible Love could write his name in the history books as well.
Through seven games, Love has rushed for 1,387 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's averaging 10.27 yards per carry and an astounding 198.14 yards per game. While there are two running backs averaging more yards per carry (on far fewer carries), Love's 198.14 yards per game leads the country, and nobody is close.
In second place is Navy quarterback Zach Abey's 169.33 yards per game, and he's doing it on 30.5 carries per game compared to Love's 19.29.
So with Love putting up video game numbers every week, it's only natural to wonder if he could be the one to break a record that has stood for nearly 30 years: Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record.
In 1988, Sanders rushed for 2,628 yards, breaking the record that was then held by USC's Marcus Allen. Since then, a few backs have come close -- Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had 2,587 yards in 2014 -- but Sanders' record remains.
However, it's going to fall one day, and maybe Bryce Love is the one to do it.
Now, before we get into whether or not Love can break the record, there is one major factor here that needs to be discussed, and it's a definite advantage for Love or any running back today. When Sanders set the record in 1988, he did it in only 11 games. Regular seasons were shorter, there weren't conference championships, not every team went to a bowl game, and there certainly wasn't a playoff. So when Sanders set the record, he did so while averaging a nearly impossible to comprehend 238.91 yards per game.
Bryce Love isn't going to do that -- nor is any other running back -- but Love will get to play at least 12 games this season. In fact, with Stanford a win away from bowl eligibility, it's practically a lock that he'll play 13 games, and should Stanford win its division, he'd get 14.
So Sanders' record is in his sights, the only question is will he get there.
I did some math to try to figure it all out, and the short answer is he might.
There were three ways I approached projecting Love's stats for the rest of the season. First, I looked at his opponents and how many yards per game rushing they are allowing. In the most basic manner, I added those yards to Love's rushing totals so far this season.
| Opponent | Projected Yards |
|---|---|
200.14 | |
125.86 | |
73.00 | |
151.14 | |
134.50 | |
Pac-12 Championship (USC) | 160.00 |
Love's Season Total So Far | 1,387 |
Total without Pac-12 Champ. | 2,071.64 |
Total w/ Pac-12 Champ. | 2,231.64 |
Barry Sanders' Record | 2,628 |
Now, as you can see in the table, there are two totals. There's the regular season total based on what games remain on the schedule, and then there's a second total in case the Cardinal reach the Pac-12 title game. Since USC is currently in first in the South, we assume for this exercise that it will be the Trojans Stanford plays, and Love rushed for 160 yards against the Trojans earlier this season. So I just projected him at 160 yards again.
As we see, based on these projections, if Stanford reaches the Pac-12 title game Love will be roughly 396 yards shy of breaking Sanders' record. I have to say the odds of him getting 397 yards in a bowl game are between slim and none. If Stanford doesn't reach the Pac-12 Championship, then Love would need 556 yards in the bowl game, and that isn't happening.
But those results aren't exactly scientific. After all, while those teams allow that many rushing yards per game, Bryce Love doesn't account for all of Stanford's rushing yards. So far this year, Love is responsible for 76.59 percent of Stanford's rushing yards.
So if we adjust the projections with that consideration, Love's odds of catching Sanders decrease dramatically.
| Opponent | Projected Yards |
|---|---|
Oregon State | 153.29 |
Washington State | 96.40 |
Washington | 55.91 |
California | 115.76 |
Notre Dame | 103.01 |
Pac-12 Championship (USC) | 160.00 |
Love's Season Total So Far | 1,387 |
Total without Pac-12 Champ. | 1,911.37 |
Total w/ Pac-12 Champ. | 2,071.37 |
Barry Sanders' Record | 2,628 |
But this isn't accurate either. This is assuming Love is an average running back, and he isn't. So to get a more precise projection, I took the average performance of the top 50 rushers in the country this season and compared that to Love's output. It turns out that Love production is 89.94 percent above the average production of the top 50 rushers in the nation.
That's good!
So how do the projections change if we account for Love accounting for 75 percent of his team's production, but producing at a level 89 percent better than the average back? Quite a bit.
| Opponent | Projected Yards |
|---|---|
Oregon State | 291.16 |
Washington State | 183.10 |
Washington | 106.20 |
California | 219.87 |
Notre Dame | 195.66 |
Pac-12 Championship (USC) | 160 |
Love's Season Total So Far | 1,387 |
Total Without Pac-12 Champ. | 2,382.99 |
Total w/ Pac-12 Champ. | 2,542.99 |
Barry Sanders' Record | 2,628 |
Based on these numbers, we see that if Stanford doesn't reach the Pac-12 Championship, Love is projected to finish the regular season with 2,382.99 yards. We'll round that up to an even 2,383 yards. That would leave him 245 yards short of Sanders' record. Now, if Stanford were making a concerted effort in its bowl game, that wouldn't be an impossible number for Love to reach, but it would be unlikely.
If Stanford wins the Pac-12 North, though, and gets that extra game against USC, the projections have Love at 2,543 yards with a bowl game left to play. In this scenario, Love would only need 86 yards in Stanford's bowl game to break the record.
Love hasn't rushed for fewer than 147 yards in a game this season, and that performance came against Oregon last week in a game Stanford won by 42. Love didn't get nearly a full workload.
So what can we conclude?
Well, even with the extra games, it's going to be difficult for Love to break Sanders' record this season, but should he avoid injury and continue performing at the same level, it's within his reach. If Stanford can win its division, Love's odds to set a new record improve dramatically.
The good news for Love is that the better he does, the better Stanford will do, so the two can work together to chase down Sanders' mark.
