The North Texas Mean Green host the Florida Atlantic Owls on Thursday at 9:30 p.m. ET as two Conference USA teams look to gain a leg up in the fight for bowl hierarchy. The Mean Green are favored by three points, while the over-under is 63.5 in the latest Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas odds. Both teams have fallen short of oddsmakers' expectations this season and have sub-.500 records against the spread, so before you make any Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas picks of your own, you need to see what SportsLine's projection model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks. 

The model was red-hot on top-rated picks last week. It nailed Ohio State (-3.5) over Michigan State in a game where the Buckeyes covered with plenty of room to spare in a 26-6 rout. Picks like that helped it go an impressive 23-10 overall on all top-rated plays, and anyone who followed it finished way, way up. 

Now it has simulated FAU vs. North Texas 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also revealed a strong against-the-spread pick, saying one side hits nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one at SportsLine. 

The model knows North Texas collapsed against Old Dominion last Saturday, getting outscored 34-3 down the stretch in a shocking 34-31 loss to the three-win Monarchs. That was quite the anomaly for a team that ranks 21st in the nation with 464.7 yards per game and 29th in yards allowed at only 342.5. UNT is averaging 37.2 points while allowing only 20.3. 

Quarterback Mason Fine has thrown for 3,119 yards, 23 touchdowns and only two interceptions, leading the Mean Green's 11th-ranked pass game. The run game is picking up steam too, as running back DeAndre Torrey has gained 275 yards with five touchdowns in the past two games. 

North Texas has racked up an impressive 30 sacks, but even more heralded are its 14 interceptions, three off the current FBS high. Senior defensive backs Nate Brooks and Kemon Hall both have four. 

Just because North Texas has a prolific passing attack and ball-hawking defense doesn't mean it'll cover against a motivated FAU squad. 

The model also knows few teams possess the offensive balance of the Owls, who average 252 yards rushing and 225 yards passing, ranking 15th overall in output. 

The run game was showcased Saturday in a 34-15 victory over Western Kentucky. Devin Singletary rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, becoming the first FAU runner to eclipse 4,000 career yards.

FAU is especially tough when quarterback Chris Robison performs at his best. He was 17 of 21 for 231 yards in last week's win, his best outing since a 471-yard, three-TD effort in a victory over Air Force in Week 2. He should have plenty of chances against a North Texas pass defense that ranks 79th in the country. 

So, which side of the FAU vs. North Texas spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of FAU vs. North Texas to jump on, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit to $100 bettors over the past three seasons.