To say that Alabama football has been a dynasty over the last decade may be understating things. Last season, the Crimson Tide picked up their fifth national championship in the last nine seasons, a feat unmatched in the AP Top 25 era. Alabama has opened No. 1 in the preseason edition of the CBS Sports 129, and it will surely start from the pole position again when the writers' vote is released in a couple of weeks.
When that happens, the Crimson Tide will have held the top spot in 29 of the last 32 polls. It will also mark the 10th consecutive year that Alabama has been at the top of the AP Top 25 at either the start the season, the end of the regular season or the end of the postseason. No team can match that. You would be hard-pressed to find a team that was ranked No. 1 at any point of 10 consecutive seasons, but it will be actually be 11 for Alabama. The last season in which the Tide did not have a single No. 1 ranking was 2007.
I cannot argue with that success. I feel like I pick Alabama No. 1 in the preseason bowl projections every year, but there is no reason not to. The Crimson Tide have the best talent and best coach, year-in and year-out. This season, we do not know who the starting quarterback will be, but whether it is Jalen Hurts (who started every game last year) or College Football Playoff National Championship hero Tua Tagovailoa, that player will be a top Heisman Trophy candidate. That's a tough problem to have.
That does not mean Alabama is invincible. In fact, none of those five championships have seen the Crimson Tide go wire-to-wire at the top of the polls, and only in 2009 did they finish the season undefeated.
Dabo Swinney has built a relatively new powerhouse at Clemson, one that is now beginning to rival the one Nick Saban has built at Alabama. Clemson, my pick for the No. 2 seed in the CFP, figures to be a strong favorite again in the ACC and will be trying to make its fourth consecutive playoff. The Tigers have finished the regular season at No. 1 two of the last three years only to lose in the CFP to the Tide. Clemson is also trying to decide on a quarterback with senior returning starter Kelly Bryant trying to hold off five-star freshman Trevor Lawrence.
Ohio State has the talent to make another run through the Big Ten, but the question surrounding the Buckeyes is whether Urban Meyer will be there to guide them? We will not have the answer to that question for another week or so as Ohio State evaluates Meyer's status with the team. He is on paid administrative leave while the school investigates what he knew about former assistant coach Zach Smith's domestic violence issues. On the field, all eyes will be on Dwayne Haskins as he replaces four-year starter JT Barrett at quarterback. The Buckeyes just missed out on last year's CFP because of a 31-point loss at Iowa.
I am picking Oklahoma to repeat as Big 12 champion and land the last spot in the CFP despite the loss of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield to the NFL. The Sooners could have Kyler Murray at quarterback; he has signed a big contract with the Oakland A's to play baseball and will begin that career at the end of this season. If it's not Murray behind center, it will be Austin Kendall. Lincoln Riley will try to duplicate the success he had in his first season, which was one of the best head coaching debuts in college football history.
2019 College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 7 | National Championship | 8 p.m. | Title game | Semifinal winners |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | 4/8 p.m. | Semifinal | (1) Alabama vs. (4) Oklahoma |
Dec. 29 | Orange Bowl | 4/8 p.m. | Semifinal | (2) Clemson vs. (3) Ohio State |
The CFP semifinal games this year will be in the Orange and Cotton Bowls. In the seasons where the Rose and Sugar Bowls are not part of the playoff, there is a possibility that some good teams could get aced out of the New Year's Six because of conference contracts. The Rose and Sugar Bowls will get teams from their contracted conferences regardless of ranking. That means, if my projections are correct, the SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 are guaranteed a second team in the New Year's Six. That would also be true of the Pac-12 should it put a team in the CFP.
I have Boise State as the representative of the Group of Five. I think the Broncos have a little easier run to a possible undefeated or one-loss season than any of the teams in the American Athletic Conference. The AAC champion figures to be a contender for that spot also, and it could be a favorite if it posts a one-loss season or better.
Selection committee bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Sugar | 8:45 p.m. | SEC vs. Big 12 | Georgia vs. Texas |
Jan. 1 | Rose | 5 p.m. | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Wisconsin vs. Washington |
Jan. 1 | Fiesta | 1 p.m. | At-large vs. At-large | Stanford vs. Boise State |
Dec. 29 | Peach | Noon | At-large vs. At-large | Miami vs. Penn State |
Once you get outside of the New Year's Six, merit is not a significant factor in bowl selection, unless it is contracted. Bowls are looking to put good matchups together that will draw a good crowd and eyes to the TV sets. ESPN owns several bowls and will sometimes change even conference affiliations at the last minute to create matchups that it wants for its games.
The Big Ten has contracted some level of no-repeat clauses for its bowl games. You can see how that impacts this projection. Purdue is slotted for the Outback Bowl in Tampa even though Iowa and Michigan are also available. However, the Wolverines and Hawkeyes are the last two Big Ten teams to play in that game, so there is almost no chance of either of them being placed in Tampa this season.
There are 39 bowl games again this season, which means 78 eligible teams are needed out of the 129 playing at the FBS level. I came up two short. Vanderbilt and Nevada are projected to be in bowl games with 5-7 records. If such a need arises, APR decides which 5-7 teams can play in the postseason.
Coastal Carolina has completed its transition from FCS to FBS and can compete in the postseason if it earns the right. Liberty is just starting that transition and is not considered an FBS program until the 2019-20 season. Former Sun Belt members Idaho and New Mexico State had to find new homes. The Vandals dropped down to FCS, while the Aggies are playing as an independent.
Other bowl games
| Date | Game / Loc. | Time / TV | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Citrus | 1 p.m. | SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC | Auburn vs. Michigan State |
| Jan. 1 | Outback Tampa, Fla. | Noon ESPN2 | SEC vs. Big Ten | Florida vs. Purdue |
| Dec. 31 | Gator | 7:30 p.m. ESPN | SEC vs. Big Ten/ACC | Texas A&M vs. Michigan |
| Dec. 31 | Holiday San Diego, Calif. | 7 p.m. FS1 | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Iowa vs. Arizona |
| Dec. 31 | Liberty | 3:45 p.m. | SEC vs. Big 12 | Miss. State vs. Kansas State |
| Dec. 31 | San Francisco Santa Clara, Calif. | 3 p.m. FOX | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 | Northwestern vs. Utah |
| Dec. 31 | Hyundai Sun El Paso, Tex. | 2 p.m. CBS | Pac-12 vs. ACC | Oregon vs. North Carolina |
| Dec. 31 | Military Annapolis, Md. | Noon ESPN | ACC vs. AAC | NC State vs. Navy |
| Dec. 29 | NOVA Arizona Tucson, Ariz. | 5:30 p.m. CBSSN | MWC vs. Sun Belt | UNLV vs. New Mexico State |
| Dec. 29 | Belk Charlotte | Noon ABC | SEC vs. ACC | Missouri vs. Florida State |
Dec. 28 | Alamo | 9 p.m. | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | West Virginia vs. USC |
| Dec. 28 | Camping World Orlando, Fla. | 5:15 p.m. ESPN | Big 12 vs. ACC | TCU vs. Notre Dame |
| Dec. 28 | Music City Nashville, Tenn. | 1:30 p.m. ESPN | SEC vs. B1G/ACC | South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech |
| Dec. 27 | Texas Houston | 9 p.m. ESPN | Big 12 vs. SEC | Oklahoma State vs. LSU |
| Dec. 27 | Pinstripe New York | 5:15 p.m. ESPN | Big Ten vs. ACC | Nebraska vs. Louisville |
| Dec. 27 | Independence Shreveport, La. | 1:30 p.m. ESPN | SEC vs. ACC | Vanderbilt vs. Duke |
| Dec. 26 | Cheez-It Phoenix | 9 p.m. ESPN | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 | Iowa State vs. California |
| Dec. 26 | Quick Lane Detroit | 5:15 p.m. ESPN | Big Ten vs. ACC | Nevada vs. Wake Forest |
| Dec. 26 | First Responder Dallas | 1:30 p.m. ESPN | Big 12 vs. CUSA | Colorado State vs. Southern Miss |
| Dec. 22 | Hawaii Honolulu | 10:30 pm ESPN | CUSA vs. MWC | Marshall vs. Wyoming |
| Dec. 22 | Dollar General Mobile, Ala. | 7 p.m. ESPN | MAC vs. Sun Belt | Ohio vs. Arkansas State |
| Dec. 22 | Armed Forces Fort Worth, Tex. | 3:30 p.m. ESPN | Big Ten vs. Army | Cincinnati vs. Army |
| Dec. 22 | Birmingham Birmingham, Ala. | Noon ESPN | SEC vs. AAC | Arkansas vs. UCF |
| Dec. 21 | Idaho Potato Boise, Idaho | 4 p.m. ESPN | MWC vs. MAC | Utah State vs. Buffalo |
| Dec. 21 | Bahamas Nassau | 12:30 pm ESPN | MAC vs. CUSA | Northern Illinois vs. MTSU |
| Dec. 20 | Gasparilla Tampa, Fla. | 8 p.m. | AAC vs. ACC/CUSA | South Florida vs. UAB |
| Dec. 19 | Frisco Frisco, Tex. | 8 p.m. ESPN | AAC vs. CUSA/MAC/Sun | Houston vs. Toledo |
| Dec. 18 | Boca Raton Boca Raton, Fla. | 7 p.m. ESPN | AAC vs. CUSA | Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic |
| Dec. 15 | New Orleans | 9 p.m. | Sun vs. CUSA | ULM vs. Louisiana Tech |
| Dec. 15 | Camellia Montgomery, Ala. | 5:30 p.m. ESPN | MAC vs. Sun Belt | Western Michigan vs. App. State |
| Dec. 15 | Las Vegas Las Vegas | 3:30 p.m. ABC | Pac-12 vs. MWC | Colorado vs. Fresno State |
| Dec. 15 | AutoNation Cure | 2:30 p.m. | AAC vs. Sun Belt | Temple vs. Troy |
Dec. 15 | New Mexico | 2 p.m. | CUSA vs. MWC | North Texas vs. San Diego State |
