There's a sense of pride and satisfaction when you call an upset and it comes to fruition. I'm working against the grain here every week, and in the process, you take a lot of punches to land a single swing. So you can imagine the lack of pride and satisfaction I felt when the biggest surprise of Week 8, No. 13 Wisconsin's stunning loss at Illinois, was nowhere to be found on last week's upset alerts. 

Not only that, the only one of the five picks that came close -- No. 7 Florida at South Carolina -- ended up with the Gators covering the spread. That meant that for the first time this season upset alerts went a resounding 0-for against the spread and on the moneyline. 

As is customary, only the ultimate insult will suffice. Roll the footage. 

Oh well, onwards and upwards. 

Each week, I'll give you the top five upset alert games based on matchups, injuries/suspensions and other factors. But in the spirit of the upset, I generally avoid games where lines are within a touchdown, though there will be some exceptions. Similarly, I'll only go with moneyline picks when the payout is around 2:1 -- maybe a little less, definitely when it's more. 

Week 8 results
ATS: 0-3
SU: 2-0
ML: 0-2

Overall results
ATS: 11-10
SU: 13-7
ML: 5-9

USC at Colorado

When: Friday, 9 p.m. ET | Where: Boulder, Colorado | Line: USC -13.5

Why it's listed: You never know what you're going to get with the Trojans. About the only thing that's been reliable this year is that they're 4-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. They're also shaky favorites, at best. 

Colorado's key to the game: Score a bunch? In all seriousness, the Buffs need a big game out of quarterback Steven Montez and his top two targets, Tony Brown and Laviska Shenault. I mean they need to play almost perfectly. 

USC's key to the game: I love USC's wideouts against Colorado's pass defense. Give me a heavy dose of Tyler Vaughns and don't let up. 

Pick: This matchup favors USC in a lot of ways, so it'd have to punch down for Colorado to pull the upset. Then again, asking USC to punch down hasn't been too hard over the last year and a half. ATS: Colorado; SU: USC

No. 6 Penn State at Michigan State 

When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: East Lansing, Michigan | Line: Penn State -6.5

Why it's listed: That a top-10 team is less than a full touchdown favorite against an unranked divisional opponent should set off at least a couple of alarms. Penn State is obviously the superior team, but playing on the road against an opponent coming off a bye while the Nittany Lions themselves are coming off an emotional win vs. No. 19 Michigan is a classic letdown situation. 

Michigan State's key to the game: The Spartans need to run their offense with some tempo and urgency. Otherwise, they'll struggle to block Penn State's stifling defense hat-on-hat. When Michigan State incorporates tempo into its offense, the Spartans have had some success. 

Penn State's key to the game: Receiver KJ Hamler is a true difference-maker with a team-best seven touchdowns. If this game gets ugly, he needs to be the best player on the field. He's notched at least one touchdown in the past four games. 

Pick: This is one of those "Vegas may know something" situations. Penn State wins, and I wouldn't be surprised if it covers, but the last two games against the Spartans -- both after huge games vs. No. 3 Ohio State -- were close losses. Something to keep in mind. ATS: Michigan State; SU: Penn State

UCF at Temple

When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Line: UCF -10.5

Why it's listed: The Owls have been reliable dogs this year, posting straight-up home wins against Maryland and Memphis. Is UCF next? Both of the Knights' losses this year have been on the road (at Pitt and at Cincinnati), and Philly is another lengthy trip. 

Temple's key to the game: What a difference a month makes. The Owls are giving up 30 points per game in October thanks to games against Memphis and No. 16 SMU. They'll have to get to Knights quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who's been sacked nine times in two losses. 

UCF's key to the game: You can burn Temple's defense on big passing plays, and Gabriel Davis is having an All-AAC year with 833 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. The higher scoring this gets, the less Temple has in reserves. 

Pick: Good teams typically do well coming off an open week, so I like the Knights straight up. Temple's defense is a tough group, but this is the third game in a physical stretch against explosive offenses. The Owls can keep pace, but how much is left in the tank for another likely shootout? ATS: Temple; SU: UCF 

No. 24 Arizona State at UCLA

When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Los Angeles, California | Moneyline: Arizona State -174, UCLA +146

Why it's listed: I'm not sure what to make out of either team, to be honest, but I need a moneyline pick and the Bruins have played better over the past month. It's not the highest payout for a dog, but by the same logic, it's not a terribly risky pick, either. 

UCLA's key to the game: Contain Sun Devils running back Eno Benjamin. He'll probably still get his yards, but if the Bruins can keep him out of the end zone, they have a shot. 

Arizona State's key to the game: Arizona State is good at holding on to the ball. It's tied for 10th nationally with only six lost. UCLA's biggest win of the year against Washington State was fueled by turnovers. If the Sun Devils continued to do what they do, they have the defense and ball control to edge out a win. 

Pick: I'm going to go full Jon Snow in the Battle of the Bastards by trusting a Chip Kelly team. There was a time when that was a much more rational take. But there aren't any bigger moneyline games I love this week. UCLA +146

Washington State at No. 11 Oregon

When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET | Where: Eugene, Oregon | Line: Oregon -13.5

Why it's listed: This has #Pac12AfterDark written all over it. Oregon's been carried for most of the season by its defense, but last week's win over Washington showed that you can hit some big plays over the top. Enter Mike Leach's offense. 

Washington State's key to the game: He doesn't get a ton of credit for how important he is to the offense, but running back Max Borghi needs to have a big game. When he's getting his touches and nearing 100 yards in a game, the Cougars are in better shape. And then he's still a threat to catch a ball out in the flats. He's the X-factor to keep Oregon's defense on its toes.

Oregon's key to the game: The Ducks have the No. 1 passing defense in the Pac-12, but last week was the first time it got exposed. If this is a get-right game and Oregon handles Wazzu's passing attack, then it should be a comfortable win. 

Pick: The Ducks notched an impressive win at Washington, but a tale of the numbers tells you the Huskies very well could have (should have?) won. Overall, Washington State can make this a game. If this one's in Pullman, I might call for the outright upset. Instead, I'll call for a scare. ATS: Washington State; SU: Oregon