The No. 16 Longwood Lancers will look to become the latest March Madness Cinderella when they face No. 1 Houston in the 2024 NCAA Tournament's first round on Friday. 16-seeds are just 2-150 all-time versus 1-seeds, although both of those victories have come within the last five NCAA Tournaments. Houston (30-4) is coming off a loss in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game, while Longwood (21-13) has won four straight, taking the Big South Tournament in the process. Longwood is 0-1 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, while Houston sports a 38-29 tourney record.
This South Region matchup will tip off at 9:20 p.m. ET from the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn. According to SportsLine consensus, the Cougars are 24-point favorites in the latest Longwood vs. Houston odds, while the over/under is 129. Before making any Houston vs. Longwood picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven model.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Longwood vs. Houston. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Houston vs. Longwood:
- Houston vs. Longwood spread: Houston -24
- Houston vs. Longwood over/under: 129 points
- Houston vs. Longwood money line: Houston -6000, Longwood +1792
- LONG: 7-2 ATS over its last nine games
- HOU: 9-4 ATS with four-plus days of rest
- Houston vs. Longwood picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Houston can cover
One of the biggest predictors in winning basketball is turnover differential, and no one is better than Houston in that regard. It's forcing 7.1 more turnovers per game than opponents, the best mark in the nation. That comes despite playing in the nation's toughest conference, and the Cougars were utterly dominant outside of the Big 12. They are 13-0 in non-conference games with a 26.5-point average margin of victory.
LJ Cryer leads the Cougars with 15.3 points, and he leads the Big 12 with a 39% clip from beyond the arc. He won a national championship with Baylor as a freshman, and Houston has the overwhelming NCAA tourney experience edge over Longwood. The team has made the Sweet 16 in each of the last four tournaments, and no team in all of college basketball has collected more overall victories than Houston's 123 since the 2020-21 season. See which team to pick at SportsLine.
Why Longwood can cover
Longwood has a tendency to play above its skis when venturing outside its conference as it went just 6-10 versus Big South opponents but 15-3 against non-conference opponents. The team also possesses the one thing that Houston doesn't, and that's size. Szymon Zapala, a 6-foot-11 center, is coming off back-to-back 17-point outings, while Houston doesn't have a single rotation player taller than 6-foot-8. With their size advantage on most nights, the Lancers average nearly 10 more rebounds per game than their opponents.
Dominating the boards, particularly on the offensive end, will allow Longwood to generate extra possessions and to get the ball into the hands of Walyn Napper more often. The Big South Tournament MVP averaged 15.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists over the three tourney games, while he's complemented on the perimeter with Michael Christmas. The sharpshooter knocked down 46.7% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, while Longwood converted on 41% of its shots from downtown over that stretch. See which team to pick at SportsLine.
How to make Houston vs. Longwood picks
The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 139 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Longwood vs. Houston, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Houston vs. Longwood spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that is 29-19 on top-rated college basketball spread picks this season.
