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It's been reasonable for a while to assume all projected first-round picks will enter and remain in the NBA Draft. In fact, not a single projected first-round pick this year has announced he's returning to school.

Will that change with new NIL rules?

Perhaps.

But, in recent years, any coach planning to have a projected first-round pick back on campus is a man who was poorly planning. It's the other guys who have real decisions to make — and the top of the sport is often shaped by those decisions.

Take Baylor last season, for instance. The Bears had multiple borderline prospects enter the 2020 NBA Draft before ultimately withdrawing and returning to school. The result was the first national title in school history. And all of this is why Tuesday was a not-great day for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lost Duane Washington, their leading scorer, to the NBA Draft even though their leading scorer might not be selected in the NBA Draft. So that's 16.4 points per game, and a 37.4% 3-point shooter, out the door. It's a blow. And the byproduct of that development is that I've dropped Ohio State to No. 18 in Version 15.0 of the 2021-22 CBS Sports Preseason Top 25 And 1.

Gonzaga remains No. 1.

The Zags have won at least 31 games in five consecutive seasons, played in two of the past four national title games, and finished first or second at KenPom in four of the past five years —  and it's possible the best is yet to come considering the roster Mark Few has in place. The West Coast Conference power should bring back Andrew Nembhard and Drew Timme, the latter of whom is the likely Preseason National Player of the Year. They'll be joined by the top-ranked prospect in the Class of 2021 (Chet Holmgren) and two other consensus top-30 freshmen (Hunter Sallis, Nolan Hickman). meaning this should be the most-talented roster in program history.

Top 25 And 1 rankings

Biggest Movers
1 Michigan
12 Ohio State
Rk
Teams
 
Chg
Rcrd
1 Gonzaga The Zags are expected to bring back Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard, both of whom started for a team that finished 31-1. They'll combine with a star-studded recruiting class - highlighted by five-star prospects Chet Holmgren and Hunter Sallis - and allow Gonzaga to enter the season as the favorite to win the national title. -- 27-8
2 UCLA Every meaningful player who helped the Bruins make the Final Four is currently projected back on campus - among them NCAA Tournament star Johnny Juzang. UCLA will add five-star prospect Peyton Watson and should have all of the pieces necessary to compete for the national title. -- 16-17
3 Kansas The Jayhawks are expected to return four of the top five scorers from a team that beat Baylor in February and finished second in the Big 12. The addition of high-level transfers Remy Martin (Arizona State) and Joseph Yesefu (Drake) should make Kansas the favorite to win what would be the 20th conference championship of Bill Self's career. -- 23-11
4 Villanova The return of Collin Gillispie and Jermaine Samuels means the Wildcats will return four of the top five scorers from a team that won the Big East title by multiple games. So Jay Wright will have the pieces necessary to compete for his third national championship. -- 18-16
5 Alabama The Crimson Tide should return four of the top seven scorers from a team that won the SEC regular-season title and SEC Tournament - most notably Jaden Shackelford and Jahvon Quinerly. The addition of five-star point guard JD Davison and four-star big Charles Bediako gives Nate Oats a chance at back-to-back conference championships. -- 25-12
6 Michigan Eli Brooks' decision to return will provide Juwan Howard with an additional experienced piece to pair with the nation's top-ranked recruiting class that features five-star prospect Caleb Houstan, five-star prospect Moussa Diabate and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year DeVante' Jones. As long as Hunter Dickinson also returns, which is expected, the Wolverines should be able to compete for another No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 1 8-24
7 Duke Duke is the only program expected to add three five-star prospects from the Class of 2021 - among them Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin, both of whom project as one-and-done top-10 NBA Draft picks. So even with Matthew Hurt and DJ Steward both leaving school early, Mike Krzyzewski should have enough talent to take the Blue Devils back to the top of the sport. 1 27-9
8 Baylor The Bears are losing Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler to the NBA Draft. But with a returning core of Adam Flagler, Matthew Mayer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and a top-10 recruiting class highlighted by five-star wing Kendall Brown and Arizona transfer James Akinjo, Scott Drew has the pieces to make another run at a national title. 1 24-11
9 Arkansas The Razorbacks are losing a lot - including projected first-round pick Moses Moody. But JD Notae should return as a double-digit scorer, and Eric Musselman is adding at least four experienced double-digit scorers via the transfer market, mostly notably Chris Lykes (Miami) and Au'Diese Toney (Pitt). 1 16-17
10 Purdue The Boilermakers have no seniors and zero players likely to enter the 2021 NBA Draft, meaning everybody who matters should return from a team that received a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The star is Trevion Williams, who averaged 15.5 points and 9.1 rebounds as a junior. 1 34-5
11 Houston As long as Kelvin Sampson remains the coach, Houston will likely be a mainstay in the Top 25 And 1. The early loss of Quentin Grimes will hurt, but probably not too much with Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark set to return and be joined by Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards. 1 32-5
12 Maryland Mark Turgeon has used the transfer market to add a quality guard (Fatts Russell) and big (Qudus Wahab). That should be enough to offset the loss of Darryl Morsell and get the Terrapins to the Big Dance for the sixth time in a span of seven NCAA Tournaments. 1 16-17
13 Texas Chris Beard has used the transfer portal to add four players - Tre Mitchell (UMass), Timmy Allen (Utah), Christian Bishop (Creighton) and Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt) - who averaged double-figures in points this past season. As a result, he appears to have enough experienced talent to compete for the Big 12 title in his first year at Texas 1 21-13
14 Kentucky John Calipari has solved Kentucky's point guard problems by adding five-star prospect TyTy Washington and Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler. Other additions like transfers Kellan Grady (Davidson), Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) and CJ Frederick (Iowa) are what will give the Wildcats a chance to go from a losing season to a conference title. 1 23-10
15 Oregon Dana Altman has been among the best at reloading his roster each offseason via the transfer market -- and now he's doing it again. The additions of Oklahoma transfer De'Vion Harmon, Syracuse transfer Quincy Guerrier and Rutgers transfer Jacob Young to an experienced core of Will Richardson, Eric Williams and N'Faly Dante should make the Ducks the biggest threat to UCLA in the Pac-12. 1 24-12
16 Florida St. The Seminoles should be good again despite the fact that they're likely losing four of their top five scorers - among them projected lottery pick Scottie Barnes. A veteran core of Anthony Polite and Malik Osborne will be joined by a top-five recruiting class highlighted by former Houston standout Caleb Mills and five-star wing Matthew Cleveland. 1 17-16
17 Tennessee John Fulkerson's decision to return for another season means Tennessee should bring back five of the top eight scorers from a team that earned a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament. That experienced core will pair nicely with a recruiting class highlighted by one of the best point guards in the Class of 2021 (Kennedy Chandler) and another newcomer who just averaged 11.7 points while shooting 44.2% from 3-point range at Auburn (Justin Powell). 1 27-9
18 Ohio St. Duane Washington's decision to remain in the NBA Draft (despite the possibility that he'll go unselected) is an obvious blow to Ohio State's roster. But Chris Holtmann is still expected to return six of the top eight scorers from a team that earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 12 22-14
19 N. Carolina The return of Armando Bacot and Caleb Love will give first-year coach Hubert Davis a chance to keep the Tar Heels nationally relevant. The arrival of Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek should help offset the loss of Garrison Brooks and Day'Ron Sharpe. -- 29-8
20 Auburn Auburn's frontcourt of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler might end up being the best frontcourt in the SEC. That's two bigs who were five-star prospects in high school joining a roster returning two double-digit scorers, most notably Allen Flanigan, who averaged 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists last season. -- 27-8
21 UConn Dan Hurley has rebuilt UConn to the point where it should be a consistent challenger to Villanova in the Big East. Even the early loss of James Bouknight, a projected first-round NBA Draft pick, shouldn't change that (especially with Tyler Polley set to return for a fifth season). -- 37-3
22 Michigan St. Aaron Henry is following Joshua Langford and Rocket Watts out the door. But the arrival of five-star guard Max Christie and Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker should have Tom Izzo in his 24th straight NCAA Tournament. -- 20-15
23 St. Bona. All five starters from a team that won the Atlantic 10 regular-season title and Atlantic 10 Tournament are expected back - most notably Kyle Lofton, who averaged 14.4 points and 5.5 assists as a junior. Wake Forest transfer Quadry Adams will provide depth. -- 20-13
24 Virginia Trey Murphy will remain in the NBA Draft, which means Virginia is losing its top three scorers. But Kihei Clark will provide Tony Bennett with an experienced point guard capable of keeping the Cavaliers near the top of the ACC, and the addition of East Carolina transfer Jayden Gardner could be a big boost. -- 23-11
25 USC Andy Enfield should have the Trojans back in the NCAA Tournament despite the loss of one-and-done star Evan Mobley. A top-15 recruiting class highlighted by Reese Dixon-Waters and Memphis transfer Boogie Ellis will help offset the departures. -- 15-18
26 Va. Tech The top four scorers from a team that made the NCAA Tournament are expected to return - among them Keve Aluma, who averaged 15.2 points and 7.9 rebounds last season. They'll be joined by Wofford transfer Storm Murphy, who should help Virginia Tech compete near the top of the ACC. -- 19-15

Roster breakdowns

1. Gonzaga

Coach: Mark Few | 2020-21 record: 31-1

2. UCLA

Coach: Mick Cronin | 2020-21 record: 22-10

3. Kansas

Coach: Bill Self | 2020-21 record: 21-9

4. Villanova

Coach: Jay Wright | 2020-21 record: 18-7

5. Alabama

Coach: Nate Oats | 2020-21 record: 26-7

6. Michigan

Coach: Juwan Howard2020-21 record: 23-5

7. Duke

Coach: Mike Krzyzewski | 2020-21 record: 13-11

8. Baylor

Coach: Scott Drew | 2020-21 record: 28-2

9. Arkansas

Coach: Eric Musselman | 2020-21 record: 25-7

10. Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter | 2020-21 record: 18-10

11. Houston

Coach: Kelvin Sampson | 2020-21 record: 28-4

12. Maryland

Coach: Mark Turgeon | 2020-21 record: 17-14

13. Texas

Coach: Chris Beard | 2020-21 record: 19-8

14. Kentucky

Coach: John Calipari | 2020-21 record: 9-16

15. Oregon

Coach: Dana Altman | 2020-21 record: 21-7

16. Florida State

Coach: Leonard Hamilton | 2020-21 record: 18-7

17. Tennessee

Coach: Rick Barnes | 2020-21 record: 18-9

18. Ohio State

Coach: Chris Holtmann | 2020-21 record: 21-10

19. North Carolina

Coach: Hubert Davis | 2020-21 record: 18-11

20. Auburn

Coach: Bruce Pearl | 2020-21 record: 13-14

21. UConn

Coach: Dan Hurley | 2020-21 record: 15-8

22. Michigan State

Coach: Tom Izzo | 2020-21 record: 15-13

23. St. Bonaventure

Coach: Mark Schmidt | 2020-21 record: 16-5

24. Virginia

Coach: Tony Bennett | 2020-21 record: 18-17

25. USC

Coach: Andy Enfield | 2020-21 record: 25-8

26. Virginia Tech

Coach: Mike Young | 2020-21 record: 15-7