Butler picked up a big win at home Tuesday over Creighton to take a big step toward securing a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs still do not have a great record against tournament-quality teams, but it is much better now.
However, Baylor's surge toward a spot in the bracket came to an abrupt halt in a loss at home to West Virginia. The Bears are not done yet, but losing at home really hurts when your margin for error is so small to begin with.
Tuesday, Bruce Rasmussen, the chairman of the NCAA Tournament selection committee, talked about how non-conference strength of schedule is not a strong factor in determining selection and seeding. Historically speaking, that bears out to a point. However, for teams very close to the cut line, it is still a very good indicator of whether a team will not get selected. Only one team since 2006 has received an at-large bid with a double-digit seed and a non-conference SOS ranked 240 or below (Missouri, 2011). How much discussion non-conference strength of schedule gets on its own when the committee evaluates that last handful of teams is unknown, but that poor schedule is still damaging teams' resumes to the point of not getting selected.
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vs. Seton Hall, 6:30 p.m., FS1 Providence has one of those highly inconsistent resumes that give the committee fits. It is able to beat Villanova and Xavier at home, but cannot beat DePaul there. The Friars need to win the games they are supposed to win. | |
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vs. North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN The Orange are on the bubble this season in part because of a lack of quality wins. Wednesday is a great opportunity to start fixing that problem. They also have Duke and Clemson coming up before the ACC Tournament, but the game against the Blue Devils is on the road. | |
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vs. Duquesne, 7 p.m. The Bonnies picked up a big win over Rhode Island last time out, which they desperately needed. They cannot afford to give that away. St. Bonaventure already has two bad losses. One more may be one too many. | |
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vs. Michigan, 7 p.m., BTN Penn State missed a great opportunity for another big win on Sunday at Purdue, which was playing without Vincent Edwards. This is the last game against a likely tournament team for the Nittany Lions. Despite the sweep of Ohio State, they still need quality wins like this. | |
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vs. Clemson, 7 p.m. The Hokies are trying to overcome a bad non-conference schedule and have done a pretty good job so far. They still cannot afford a slump and they have four tough games left. Fortunately, the first three are at home, starting Wednesday. | |
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vs. St. John's, 8:30 p.m. Marquette is on the fringe of the bubble. At 15-11, the Golden Eagles would have to play at least .500 basketball the rest of the way to even get any significant consideration from the committee, but the reality is, Marquette needs to do much better than that. The Warriors' next three games are against the three teams below them in the conference standings. It is time to get hot and stay hot. | |
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at Auburn, 8:30 p.m., SEC Network Alabama is one quality road win from getting off the bubble. That is the opportunity ahead of the Crimson Tide vs. their in-state rival. At win at league-leading Auburn should lock up a spot for Alabama. | |
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at Colorado State, 9 p.m. There is not much left for Boise State to do to get an at-large bid except keep winning and hope for the best. The Broncos really needed to beat Nevada, but now if that happens, they will have won the automatic bid. | |
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at Kansas State, 9 p.m., ESPNU Texas has played a difficult schedule, but it is starting to look like it may have been too difficult. The Longhorns' resume as it stands right now would probably get them in, but they have three Q1 games left, including vs. Kansas State, which is also on the bubble. At 16-11, Texas will probably have to win at least half of their remaining games, including however many they play in the Big 12 Tournament, to get picked. | |
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vs. Texas, 9 p.m. , ESPNU The Wildcats have a very bad non-conference schedule. It could be a record for the worst ever for an at-large team if they become one. They are currently in fourth place in the Big 12, but 0-6 against the three teams ahead of them. That is part of their 3-7 record against Quadrant 1. They also have a bad loss to Tulsa. KSU has been good on the road though, posting a 6-3 mark. That includes a win earlier this season at Texas, which is arguably its best so far. This would be a bad time for the Wildcats to slump. | |
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at Duke, 9 p.m., ESPN It has been a rough week already for Louisville basketball and the Cards haven't even taken the court yet. They are in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament because they just cannot seem to beat good competition. They are just 2-7 against Q1 and 3-9 against both Q1 and Q2. That is not going to get the job done, but they do have four Q1 games left starting Wednesday at Duke. Unfortunately, three of those are on the road and the home game is against Virginia. | |
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at Tennessee, 9 p.m., ESPN2 Good luck trying to figure out Florida. The Gators have actually done a good job against Q1 opponents, posting a 5-3 mark and with all five wins away from home against teams in the bracket. The problem for them is that they are 7-7 against Q2-3 and five of those losses have come at home. The Gators need a strong finish, but will have to do it in four Q1 games. | |
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at Colorado, 10:30 p.m., FS1 USC is in desperate need of quality wins, but in the Pac-12, the list of teams that provide those is pretty short. Colorado is not one of those teams, but the Buffaloes are still going to be tough to beat at home. The Trojans will have to finish building a tournament-quality resume without star Bennie Boatright, who is out for the season with a patella injury. | |
Bubble watch
In for now
| Team | RPI | SOS | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (17-10) | 31 | 13 | Feb 21, 8:30pm ET @ Auburn |
| Arkansas (19-9) | 34 | 40 | Feb 24, 6:00pm ET @ Alabama |
| Florida St. (19-8) | 45 | 71 | Feb 25, 6:00pm ET @ NC State |
| Houston (21-5) | 19 | 84 | Feb 22, 9:00pm ET @ Memphis |
| TCU (18-9) | 21 | 14 | Feb 21, 8:00pm ET @ Iowa St. |
| Texas A&M (17-11) | 25 | 6 | Feb 24, 4:00pm ET @ Vanderbilt |
On the fence
| Team | RPI | SOS | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas St. (19-8) | 59 | 74 | Feb 21, 9:00pm ET vs Texas |
| Miami (Fla.) (19-8) | 30 | 55 | Feb 24, 2:00pm ET vs Boston College |
| Middle Tenn. (22-5) | 21 | 92 | Feb 24, 7:00pm ET vs UAB |
| NC State (19-9) | 55 | 61 | Feb 25, 6:00pm ET vs Florida St. |
| Providence (17-10) | 35 | 22 | Feb 21, 6:30pm ET vs Seton Hall |
| UCLA (19-8) | 47 | 66 | Feb 22, 9:00pm ET @ Utah |
| Va. Tech (19-8) | 54 | 81 | Feb 21, 7:00pm ET vs Clemson |
Work to do
| Team | RPI | SOS | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor (17-11) | 56 | 23 | Feb 24, 12:00pm ET @ TCU |
| Boise St. (21-6) | 50 | 120 | Feb 21, 9:00pm ET @ Colorado St. |
| Butler (19-10) | 32 | 21 | Feb 28, 9:00pm ET @ St. John's |
| Florida (17-10) | 65 | 44 | Feb 21, 9:00pm ET @ Tennessee |
| Georgia (15-11) | 66 | 45 | Feb 21, 6:30pm ET @ S. Carolina |
| Louisville (18-9) | 51 | 36 | Feb 21, 9:00pm ET @ Duke |
| Marquette (15-11) | 60 | 15 | Feb 21, 8:30pm ET vs St. John's |
| Nebraska (21-9) | 58 | 98 | Feb 25, 6:15pm ET vs Penn St. |
| New Mex. St. (22-5) | 46 | 134 | Feb 22, 9:00pm ET vs Chicago St. |
| Penn St. (19-10) | 76 | 89 | Feb 21, 7:00pm ET vs Michigan |
| St. Bona. (20-6) | 26 | 90 | Feb 21, 7:00pm ET vs Duquesne |
| Syracuse (18-9) | 39 | 28 | Feb 21, 7:00pm ET vs N. Carolina |
| Temple (15-12) | 44 | 8 | Feb 25, 2:00pm ET vs UCF |
| Texas (16-11) | 52 | 18 | Feb 21, 9:00pm ET @ Kansas St. |
| USC (19-9) | 42 | 51 | Feb 21, 10:30pm ET @ Colorado |
| Utah (17-9) | 49 | 65 | Feb 22, 9:00pm ET vs UCLA |
| Washington (18-9) | 47 | 34 | Feb 22, 9:00pm ET @ Stanford |
| Western Ky. (20-7) | 57 | 101 | Feb 22, 8:00pm ET vs Charlotte |
