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Kansas State led almost the entire way against West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament semis, but gave up the lead late and will now have to sweat out Selection Sunday. A win vs. WVU wouldâve probably sealed a spot for the Wildcats.
Meanwhile, Michigan State, even after losing to Minnesota Friday in the Big Ten Tournament, is probably going to get into the NCAA Tournament for the 20th straight year.
And it was a good news-bad news for Rhode Island.
As the clock winds down on conference tournaments, time also is running short for bubble teams to secure an NCAA Tournament spot. Letâs break down the bubble, starting with Fridayâs impact games coming up followed by a status update on each bubble team.
Probably in
Big Ten quarters: Minnesota 63, Michigan State 58
The Spartansâ Big Ten Tournament came to an end in a loss to the Gophers on Friday. Michigan State finishes 19-14 against a top-10 rated schedule and beat some good teams home and away. I expect the Spartans to make their 20th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.
A-10 quarters: VCU 71, George Mason 60
VCU needed to avoid a bad loss, and the Rams did exactly that win over George Mason. VCU is now the favorite to win the A-10 automatic bid with Daytonâs loss earlier in the day, but they will not need it. Theyâre in regardless.
SEC quarters: Arkansas 73, Ole Miss 72
Arkansas will move off the bubble after taking care of Ole Miss in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Razorbacks finished the season well, and while they do not have much in the way of higher quality wins, they do not have the kind of negatives that will keep them out.
Before losing to Creighton in their Big East tourney opener, the Friars finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak to put themselves into the bracket. Their bad losses (Boston College, DePaul, St. Johnâs, Ohio State) could come into play, but the wins Providence picked up in that strong finish should help land them a berth.
Marquette has some good wins, the best being against No. 1 overall seed Villanova, but a lot of losses. The Golden Eagles didnât play a very good non-conference schedule, and await their fate after losing to Seton Hall to open the Big East tournament. Eight top 50 wins, including four at home, should keep them in the field.
On the fence
Wake followed the best final regular-season week of any bubble team -- beating Louisville and winning at Virginia Tech to fill resume holes -- by losing to the Hokies in the ACC Tournament. That makes for a nervous selection Sunday.
B-12 semis: West Virginia 51, Kansas State 50
The Wildcats led almost the entire way in this rock fight with the Mountaineers, but gave up the lead late and fell out of the Big 12 tournament. It remains to be seen whether this will cost them a spot in the committeeâs bracket. There will be a lot of nail biting in the Little Apple on selection Sunday.
P-12 semis: Oregon 73, California 65
The Bears were without Jabari Bird for most of the game after he suffered a possible concussion, but they hung tough with the Ducks. Thatâs the second close game they have played, but Cal needed an actual victory, not a moral one. The Bears may find themselves in the NIT.
A-10 quarters: Rhode Island 74 St. Bonaventure 63
It was a good news-bad news day for Rhode Island. The good news is that Dayton lost, which makes the Ramsâ path to an A-10 championship and automatic qualification. The bad news is that Dayton lost, which means that the quality win that the Rams need to bolster their at-large chances will not be available until the A-10 championship game, where they may face VCU. By the time they get the wins they need, they will be the A-10 champion.
SEC quarters: Vanderbilt 72, Florida 62, OT
Stop me if you have heard this one before...Vanderbilt beat Florida. The Commodores picked up their third win over the Gators this season as they try to become the first 15-loss at-large team. Or, better still, win the SEC Tournament and take away the suspense. Vandy is now 19-14 and has played one of the toughest schedules, which is why we can entertain the idea of a 15-loss team making the tournament. Tomorrow, they will play a team that is not as good (Arkansas) as the one they just defeated.
Middle Tennessee 82, UTEP 56
Middle Tennessee avenged its only conference loss in the win over the Miners. The Blue Raiders now have the setup they need for a potential at-large bid. They will take on the winner of Louisiana Tech and Marshall in the C-USA final, and a loss in that game may not even qualify as a bad loss. Other bubble teams will be rooting hard for MTSU on Saturday.
The Redbirds won a share of the Missouri Valley title, which in most years would be enough for an at-large bid. That is not the case this season, with the league at its lowest point in over a decade. Illinois State has only two top 100 wins (vs. Wichita State and New Mexico), which usually is not enough. They also have a couple bad losses, including a real clunker at Murray State.
Probably out
Kentucky 71 Georgia 60
Georgiaâs season is over after a loss to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament. The Bulldogs fell to 18-14, and without a win over a sure NCAA Tournament team, they will likely head to the NIT. Six of their 14 losses came to Kentucky, Florida and Kansas, and they could have really used a win against that group.
MWC semis: Nevada 83, Fresno State 72
Nevada is one step closer to winning the Mountain West championship and making selection Sunday a day of celebration instead of consternation. The Wolf Pack came from behind to beat Fresno State in the conference semifinals. Their at-large chances are not very good, so better to just take care of business tomorrow.
The Orange have beaten six top 50 teams -- all at home -- including wins over Florida State, Duke and Virginia. But the rest of the season was not good, and that is reflected in an 86 RPI. That would be the worst RPI ever for a tournament team. They also are only 2-11 away from home, which alos would be the worst ever for a tournament team. And, finally, the Orange has five bad losses, which would be one short of the record for a tournament team. A team with six top 50 wins gets left out almost every year. No team with their negatives ever gets in.
The Hawkeyes (18-14) lost to Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament. While they have some pretty nice wins, including at home over Big Ten champ Purdue and at Maryland and Wisconsin (the latter two part of a four-game winning streak to end the regular season), bad losses to Memphis and Nebraska-Omaha hurt. Iowa has the slightly better version of Syracuseâs profile, with the main difference being the Hawkeyes have quality wins away from home. However, it is probably still not enough to get a bid.
