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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +2583
    (60%)
    141-95 in Last 236 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    G. Williams
    Under 16.5
    -127
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Oct 14 @ 7:43pm

    Analysis

    DraftKings / Caesar’s. I’m a firm believer that the playoffs magnify pitch efficiency issues, and that’s what we’ve seen from Gavin Williams. Even though he’s been terrific, he has only been able to complete five and 5.2 innings in his outings, needing 4.56 pitches per plate appearance against the White Sox. The Rays have grinded out at bats more-so in the playoffs than the regular season, and are excellent a third time through the order facing a starter.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    #5
    +969
    (55%)
    42-35-3 in Last 80 MLB Picks
    Under 6.5
    +100
    Over/Under
    Picked: Oct 14 @ 9:57pm

    Analysis

    Tampa Bay stays under the total in over 52% of its games, while Cleveland stays under the total in over 51% of their games, and we have a time change to get the game in with poor weather (rain) looming. It's expected to be 60 degrees with the wind blowing towards third base at 7 mph. Gavin Williams was masterful in his Game 5 clinching win against the White Sox, 2-0, and he had double-digit strikeouts in his last two starts. Griffin Jax hasn't allowed a run in his last three outings, and the Rays have won his last four starts. Between the weather and two starters pitching their best at the moment, I think this game stays under.
  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    West Coast Wiseguy
    TOR
    -114
    Money Line
    Picked: Oct 14 @ 8:03pm

    Analysis

    Buffalo's 109 giveaways, compared to Toronto's 86, are a staggering difference. Adding to Buffalo's struggles, the Sabers' penalty kill has started weak (60.9%), while Toronto has been efficient on the power play (29.2%). Buffalo's star defenseman Rasmus Dahlin didn't play in Montreal, and he’s on the wrong side of questionable. With Matt Grzelcyk out, Buffalo's defense is compromised. This marks the Sabers' third game in four days. Toronto comes off a win over Colorado and one-goal losses to both Utah and Vegas—three expected playoff teams. Notably, Buffalo routed the Leafs 7-4 last January at Scotiabank Arena (with a Dahlin hat trick). The Leafs have won three of their last four home games against Buffalo. Toronto is 125-59-21 at home over the past five seasons. Revenge.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #2
    +490
    (67%)
    8-4 in Last 12 NHL ML Picks
    DET
    -133
    Money Line
    Picked: Oct 14 @ 5:14pm

    Analysis

    Todd McLellan might be coaching for his job on Thursday in Detroit. Something big surely will be coming -- maybe the trade Dylan Larkin so wants -- if the Wings lose at home to the atrocious and winless Flyers. Detroit is not a Cup contender or anything but has a playoff-caliber roster, so one victory is not acceptable as it is. At least McLellan is giving backup Daniil Tarasov his chance Thursday. He has a 0.66 GAA in one start and one period-plus relief appearance so far. Philly has totaled all of 10 goals in its eight games. Top-six blueliner Cam York isn't on the trip.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +457.5
    (69%)
    20-9 in Last 29 NCAAF Picks
    Under 70.5
    -108
    Over/Under
    Picked: Oct 14 @ 10:04pm

    Analysis

    Believe this is the highest total of the season, and I pretty much auto-play Under anything at 70 or higher. And, hey, I even get the hook. These teams both score plenty and can't defend, obviously, so they may have 70 by end of third. But Colorado State No. 1 QB Hauss Hejny will not start. He missed the past two and the Rams put up 45 and 26 points without him. Texas State is fifth in the nation in rushing and in theory that means chewing clock. The Bobcats have been held under 30 three of five games. Our model has 63 points. It just now occurs to me this is Pac-12 game. Yeah, times have changed (not for the better mostly) ...

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