With the PGA Championship returning to Valhalla for the first time in a decade, the key question everyone's asking is the same across the golf world: Who are you picking to win this 106th playing of one of the nation's most notable tournaments? With an extraordinary field featuring the best professionals and many of the top amateurs in the world, the second major championship of 2024 should be an epic ride from Thursday's first round through the awarding of the Wanamaker Trophy early Sunday evening.
There is a three-headed monster atop the 2024 PGA Championship field as Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy have all won the last two tournaments in which they started. Scheffler's run has been even more impressive -- winning four of his last five starts -- but he's also been off for nearly a month while tending to personal matters, including the birth of his first child. Koepka, the reigning PGA champion, has dominated LIV Golf and rekindled his top-level game.
McIlroy got his mind right alongside Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic and followed by taking advantage of his comfort at Quail Hollow to win last week's Wells Fargo Championship. Now, he visits the site and event at which he won his last major 10 years ago hoping some more course and tournament familiarity will bring him back to the winner's circle.
There are plenty of golfers behind them who will surely be in contention, including wunderkind Ludvig Åberg, Bryson DeChambeau, reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark and John Rahm -- just to name a few. And then there's the duo of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. Woods has not played a complete weekend at the PGA Championship since 2020, while Mickelson won the whole shebang the following season.
So, what is going to happen at Valhalla this week? Let's take a look at predictions and picks from our CBS Sports experts -- along with a full set of PGA Championship odds and a truncated list of the nine most likely to win the Wanamaker Trophy -- as we attempt to project who will win and what will happen at the most prestigious golf tournament in the world.
Follow live leaderboard coverage of the PGA Championship throughout Round 1, and watch the final two rounds of the 2024 PGA Championship live on Saturday and Sunday from 1-7 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+.
2024 PGA Championship expert picks, predictions
Kyle Porter, senior golf writer
Winner: Scottie Scheffler (4-1): I'm just going to keep picking Scottie until he loses, which he hasn't done much over the last few months. Since March 1, Scheffler has lost to one golfer: Stephan Jaegar at the Houston Open. That's it. It probably hurts him a little bit that this is less of a strategy golf course and more of an execution golf course, but he's been firing on all cylinders in both of those areas for a long time now.
Sleeper -- Cameron Young (55-1): I'm looking for somebody who drives the heck out of the ball. Check. Somebody who has had success at past PGA Championships. Check. Somebody who plays well at major championships in general. Check. Somebody who has had some success so far this season. Check. And somebody who is currently undervalued. Check. There is not a world in which Young should be 55-1 on this course, especially after his quiet T9 at the Masters and how well he drives the ball on a course that demands it.
Top 10 lock -- Rory McIlroy: He's playing such good golf right now, and more importantly, he's hitting driver as well as he's ever hit it going into a course where that will be a great benefit. His lack of wins in majors over the last few years have seemingly been the result of mental hurdles rather than physical ones, and there aren't as many mental hurdles when it comes to finishing in the top 10. He has top 10s at the PGA in each of the last two years without his best stuff.
Star who definitely won't win -- Xander Schauffele: I don't know that Schauffele qualifies as a star, though I feel like if you're in the top five in the world, you sort of deserve that designation. But I definitely don't believe he will win. He has struggled to close out major championships (heck, tournaments in general) and enters this one having been run over by McIlroy at the end of last week's Wells Fargo Championship.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Brooks Koepka vs. Rory McIlroy: Obviously, picking Scheffler to win, I have him out in front. I'm actually not super high on Koepka this week. He thrives in strategy contests because he's so good at keeping his head when those around him are losing theirs. Still, I think he'll finish in the top 15, which means all three of these guys will have good weeks, though they will finish with Scheffler on top, McIlroy next and Koepka third.
Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson: I have both missing the cut but Mickelson coming closer than Woods. Lefty is not playing good golf, and Tiger is not playing golf at all. It's one thing for Tiger to make the cut at a strategy golf course like Augusta National where he can think his way around. It's quite another at a place like Valhalla where he'll have to hit it forever and slog his way around a big ballpark.
Surprise prediction -- Nail-biter finish: I don't know that this is a huge surprise, but given how many blowouts we've had at majors recently (the last two have been over before the back nine on Sunday), it might be a shock to see this leaderboard rival the 2021 U.S. Open in terms of how packed it is late in the week. Huge names, great players and eventually Scheffler will emerge, but not before he gets all kinds of contention from guys like McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau and Wyndham Clark.
Lowest round: 64 (-8)
Winning score: 273 (-15)
Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-4)
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Winner -- Bryson DeChambeau (28-1): I deviated from my preseason Masters pick (Scheffler) like a fool, so I will not be making that mistake again. When I look at Valhalla, I see a golf course which asks players to hit it long and straight off the tee -- a golf course that will provide some relief around the green due to the heavy rough. This should play right into the hands of DeChambeau, who was the first-round leader at Oak Hill last year and the Masters just last month. He's in great form, among the best drivers in the game and someone who has won on a Jack Nicklaus design before.
Sleeper -- Will Zalatoris (75-1): The form isn't great, but this guy just finished top 10 at the Masters. In fact, Zalatoris has finished inside the top 10 seven times across his 10 major appearances as a professional. Three of those doubled as runners-up finishes, including his playoff loss at this championship just two years ago. The wiry right hander knows how to play major golf. Among the leaders in terms of proximity from 175 to 225 yards, he could be a steal at this price.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: Boring, I know. Even with the month layoff due to the arrival of baby Scheffler, the world No. 1 should pick up right where he left off. A winner in four of his last five tournaments, Scheffler has widened the gap between himself and the rest of the world making a the grand slam a real conversation. I doubt there will be competitive rust, but I'll play it conservatively with a top-10 finish, which he has accomplished in 10 of his last 15 major appearances, including last year at Oak Hill where he finished runner-up after holding the 36-hole lead.
Star who definitely won't win -- Cameron Smith: This one is tough, but I hate the course fit for Smith despite his coming in with a string of good form. He's not long off the tee, he's not straight off the tee, and this golf course mitigates his short-game advantage ever so slightly. The Australian has been good in majors over the last handful of years (including at Oak Hill last year in a bit of a surprise), but I could see him struggle at Valhalla. I might be selling this week, but I'll be buying next month at Pinehurst No. 2.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Brooks Koepka vs. Rory McIlroy: There's a chance they finish 2-3-4 right behind DeChambeau, of course. Scheffler's floor is just so high at the moment that it's difficult to suggest he will lose to anyone, while Koepka has made the PGA Championship his major over the last half decade or so -- he's had a chance to win in all of them since 2018 if you take away 2022 when he was injured. McIlroy is in top form as well with two wins, andhe is the second-best player in the world. Koepka makes you look like an idiot if you side against him in majors, but I think he finishes last among this group with Scheffler finding a podium and McIlroy not far behind that.
Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson: After some mental gymnastics, I've decided to roll with the Big Cat. Since the start of 2022, Woods has actually made five of seven cuts, including his last PGA Championship at Southern Hills. I think he's capable of playing his way into the weekend again, and by that time, I am expecting the drop in form (which will probably happen) not to matter as Mickelson's waywardness off the tee will send him packing early.
Surprise prediction -- Jordan Spieth gets into contention at some point: It could happen early in the first round or it could happen late on Sunday, but Spieth will pop his name onto the first page of the leaderboard this week. He is driving the golf ball perhaps as well as ever, which will be crucial for his chances. The rest of his game is in a state of disarray, and the wrist injury continues to nag him, but this is Spieth we're talking about. He's shown he is capable of anything. Anything.
Lowest round: 65 (-6)
Winning score: 272 (-12)
Winner's Sunday score: 68 (-3)
Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.
Adam Silverstein, director of editorial
Winner -- Rory McIlroy (15/2): Look, picking McIlroy to win a major has been a fool's errand of late. Anyone who has done so even once in the last 10 years has been wrong, and I've certainly backed Rory more than once in that span. But it's tough not to love the way he's playing of late. Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka have been equally hot, but Scheffler enters Valhalla after a month off -- and will play at least one round without his caddie -- while Koepka has done his winning on a less-competitive tour and just posted a T45 at the Masters. It does appear as if McIlroy is dealing with some personal turmoil, but in terms of what we have seen on the course, it looks to have only focused him. We also know Rory does not need to be atop the leaderboard entering the weekend to be competitive down the stretch; he rallies better than anyone on the PGA Tour. With McIlroy going from one familiar course he's had success (Quail Hollow at the Wells Fargo Championship) to another (Valhalla where he won his last major in 2014), the stars are aligning for Rory to break through and continue his historic run.
Sleeper -- Justin Thomas (50-1): It's been immensely tough to watch J.T. given he is playing nowhere near his talent level and cannot seem to find his game no matter what he tries. Thomas has missed the cut in three straight majors and four of the last five. Since his 2022 PGA Championship victory, he's finished no better than T37 at a major. What I do know is that J.T. at 50-1 playing his hometown course in the event at which he's had the most success (two PGA wins) is terrific value.
Top 10 lock -- Scottie Scheffler: The benefit of choosing McIlroy to win is keeping Scheffler available as a top-10 lock, which feels like such a given at this point that I'm surprised odds are available for it. Scheffler has finished in the top 10 across four of his last five and 11 of his last 14 majors since the 2020 PGA. That's insanity -- an 80% chance he's going to finish in the top 10 and probably even higher given the golf he's playing now is better than it has been at any point in his career. Plus, diapers are expensive, so clearly the motivation is there.
Star who definitely won't win -- Xander Schauffele: Kyle stole my thunder here because this is a drum I've been beating for years now. There may be no more talented player who is less clutch in crunch time than Schauffele, who once again last week was unable to get the job done when it counted down the stretch. He has not won int he United States since June 2022, and his last victory of any true significance came at the 2017 Tour Championship. There's simply no trust that he can get the job done when it counts, and at a tournament like this that requires immense play for 72 holes with no significant droughts, I have no desire to lean on him to get the job done.
Scottie Scheffler vs. Brooks Koepka vs. Rory McIlroy: Given I have McIlroy winning and Scheffler as a top-10 lock, it's Koepka bringing up the rear. That's not any shade on Brooks, though, who is attempting to go back-to-back at the PGA for the second time in his career (2018-19) and back-to-back at a major for the third time (2017-18 U.S. Open). He is exceptional at majors when healthy and should be higher on the oddsboard (currently fifth behind Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele and Jon Rahm). The only reason he's being picked behind the others is because McIlroy and Scheffler are so hot right now.
Tiger Woods vs. Phil Mickelson: There was an ongoing side bet at the Masters between a couple of us debating whether Woods or Sergio Garcia would finish better. I was somewhat-ridiculed for choosing Tiger, and while I won that side bet after Woods made the cut, he could not have played worse over the final 36 holes. Still, I'm backing Big Cat. Woods almost appears to be in a zone now where he gives everything he can to make the cut only for his energy and body to give out down the stretch of the few tournaments he plays. This is evidenced by him making four of five major cuts since 2022 but withdrawing from two of those four events. Mickelson, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Aside from a T2 finish at the 2023 Masters, he's missed cuts in five of seven majors since the 2022 Open. Plus, let's just be honest, it's more fun to root for Tiger.
Surprise prediction -- A new Michael Block will emerge: It's not every year that a PGA pro makes a run at this event, nor an amateur goes deep at the Masters, but we've seen a lot of parity recently with some unexpected names moving well on the leaderboard over weekends. Block took the 2023 PGA by storm, and his T15 finish was almost as big a deal as Koepka winning the entire tournament. Count me in the camp that believes that was less of an oddity and more a sign of things to come in this tournament.
Lowest round: 64 (-7)
Winning score: 270 (-14)
Winner's Sunday score: 69 (-2)
