Friday night at Dodger Stadium, two of the best teams in baseball -- arguably the two most talented teams in baseball -- will begin a three-game series as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves. The Braves enter play Friday with the best record in baseball. The Dodgers are not too far behind them.
Here are the top of the MLB standings heading into this weekend's series:
- Atlanta Braves: 20-9
- Philadelphia Phillies: 21-11 (0.5 GB)
- Cleveland Guardians: 20-11 (1 GB)
- Baltimore Orioles: 20-11 (1 GB)
- Milwaukee Brewers: 19-11 (1.5 GB)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 20-13 (2 GB)
"I love going to Dodger Stadium," Braves third baseman Austin Riley told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this week. "It's a playoff atmosphere all the time. They're a really good ballclub, so it's going to be another battle. We're all looking forward to it. So enjoy the off day (Thursday) and then we'll get after it."
This is the first meeting of 2024 between these two National League powerhouses. They'll play the second leg of their season series, a four-game series at Truist Park, from Sept. 13-16. Here now are the details for this weekend's Braves vs. Dodgers series in Chavez Ravine. Select games can be streamed on fuboTV (try for free).
| Date | Start time | Starting pitchers | TV |
|---|---|---|---|
Fri., May 3 | 10:10 p.m. ET | RHP Gavin Stone (2-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Charlie Morton (2-0, 3.60 ERA) | SportsNet LA, Bally Sports South, MLB Network |
Sat., May 4 | 9:10 p.m. ET | RHP Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 2.72 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (1-0, 1.50 ERA) | SportsNet LA, Bally Sports South |
Sun., May 5 | 4:10 p.m. ET | LHP James Paxton (3-0, 3.51 ERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2-0, 4.02 ERA) | SportsNet LA, Bally Sports South |
The Dodgers are returning home after a 7-2 road trip through Washington, Toronto, and Arizona. The Braves are three games into a six-game West Coast swing. They dropped two of three in Seattle earlier this week. Games only mean so much in early May, but this will be a nice little litmus test for both teams. Good chance to see how you stack up against the best.
Here now are four things to know heading into this weekend's Braves vs. Dodgers series, with a prediction thrown in because why not?
These are the highest-scoring teams in baseball
In terms of runs per game, these are the two best offenses in the sport. The Braves are averaging 5.41 runs per game, the most in baseball, and the Dodgers are right behind them at 5.36 runs per game. The MLB average is 4.33 runs per game in the early going, so the Braves and Dodgers are both a full run north of average, offensively.
Interestingly enough, the Braves lead baseball in runs per game despite scoring double digits only once in 29 games. They hung a 12-spot on the Phillies in the second game of the season and have yet to score more than nine runs in a game since. The Dodgers have scored double-digit runs four times, by comparison, and 16 of the other 29 teams have multiple games with 10-plus runs.
The Braves may not score double-digit runs often, but they have scored at least five runs in 18 of their 29 games, or 62%. That is the highest rate in baseball. It's a consistent offensive attack. One that has not put up a crooked number all that often but will hang 5-6 runs on the board each night. Their six games with three or fewer runs are the fewest in baseball.
Atlanta's big three has started slowly
Atlanta leads baseball in runs per game even though their three MVP candidates -- Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. -- have all started the season slowly, at least relative to their usual standards. Marcell Ozuna has led the way offensively, and Travis d'Arnaud has been great while filling in for the injured Sean Murphy.
Here's what the Braves' big three is doing 29 games into their season:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | HR | RBI | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 136 | .252/.368/.322 | 98 | 1 | 7 | 0.5 |
Matt Olson | 127 | .206/.323/.383 | 100 | 3 | 16 | 0.5 |
Austin Riley | 132 | .235/.311/.387 | 97 | 2 | 16 | 0.7 |
Acuña is 13 for 14 in stolen base attempts, so while he's slugging well below his career norms, he is having an impact on the bases. Still, these three have not performed as expected. They haven't been bad, more like average-ish, but average-ish is a big step down for three players who are in the MVP conversation season after season.
It's a testament to the Braves and their depth that Acuña, Olson, and Riley have performed so far below their standards and yet they still lead the league in runs per game. Almost any other team would be sunk with their top three players performing like that. Once these three get on track, forget it. The Braves will be an offensive juggernaut.
The Dodgers have some bullpen issues
The Dodgers have 11 pitchers on the injured list, close to a full pitching staff, and among the injured are trusted late inning relievers Ryan Brasier (calf strain), Brusdar Graterol (shoulder inflammation), and Blake Treinen (bruised lung). Los Angeles has a lockdown high leverage guy in Evan Phillips. The setup crew behind him as been hit or miss the last few weeks.
Here are the veterans that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has leaned on to bridge the gap between starter and Phillips:
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 | 3.21 | 0.93 | 27.3% | 1.8% | 1.93 | |
12 | 5.25 | 1.50 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 0.00 | |
15 1/3 | 1.76 | 1.30 | 28.1% | 18.8% | 1.17 |
Hudson's strikeout and walk rates are exceptional, but he's alarmingly home run prone. How long is Vesia going to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA with that walk rate (12 walks in 15 1/3 innings)? Kelly's game seems designed specifically to give fans agita. He puts so many runners on base while pitching mostly in close games. Things can get dicey in front of Phillips.
Shutdowns and meltdowns are a fun little bullpen metric. Shutdowns are relief appearances that increase the team's win probability at least 6%. Meltdowns are the opposite. They decrease the team's win probability by at least 6%. The Dodgers have the 16th most shutdowns and the tenth most meltdowns. Their 1.6 SD/MD ratio is 16th in baseball and among the worst among expected contenders. (The Braves are seventh with a 2.5 SD/MD ratio.)
The Dodgers are smart and resourceful and I'm sure they'll figure out their bullpen over these next few weeks and months. Right now though, yeah, things can get dicey in the middle innings. The starters are excellent and Phillips is very good at the end of the game. The few innings in the middle there is when things get interesting and the Braves could take advantage this weekend.
Who's hot, who's not
Baseball is a sport of hot and cold streaks. Day-to-day and week-to-week consistency is a myth. As such, several players head into this weekend's series swinging the bat better than others. Here are the hottest Braves hitters over the last 14 days:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Travis d'Arnaud | 33 | .423/.515/1.077 | 5 | 12 |
49 | .319/.347/.447 | 1 | 5 | |
Marcell Ozuna | 47 | .263/.404/.421 | 1 | 9 |
d'Arnaud had a three-homer game on April 19, so that's skewing the numbers in the table a tad, though he is 8 for 22 (.364) with two home runs in the 10 games since. He's been really even outside the three-homer game. Ozuna has been one of the best hitters in the game this year, so much so that those numbers in the last two weeks represent a step down for him.
On the flip side, Olson (.105/.255/.132) and Riley (.156/.269/.200) have been really bad the last two weeks, and so has Jarred Kelenic (.222/.276/.259). Kelenic went 14 for 35 (.400) in his first 13 games and all the talk was about how good he looked thanks to his swing changes. He's now 6 for 31 (.194) in 10 games since. Seattle Mariners fans know that story well.
Now here are three Dodgers going into the weekend swinging the bat well:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
56 | .391/.500/.543 | 0 | 7 | |
53 | .313/.340/.604 | 3 | 10 | |
48 | .366/.417/.732 | 3 | 9 |
Betts has been the best player in baseball this season, and of course, Freddie Freeman (.318/.446/.500) and Shohei Ohtani (.289/.396/.578) have been great these last two weeks as well. Few teams can match Atlanta's big three but the Dodgers are one of them. Pages (pronounced PAH-hez) was called up on April 16 to give the bottom of the lineup some juice, and he's delivered.
James Outman (.125/.160/.167 the last two weeks) is losing playing time to Pages and Teoscar Hernández (.217/.308/.326 the last two weeks) has cooled after a hot start. The Dodgers are right there with the Braves offensively and, heading into this series, their best hitters and playing better than Atlanta's best hitters.
Prediction
Let the record show I nailed my Orioles vs. Yankees prediction earlier this week, right down to picking which of the four games the O's would lose. For this weekend, I'll say the Braves win two of three, with the Dodgers taking the Glasnow vs. Elder matchup. Fried has been so good lately, and I think this is the weekend Acuña rediscovers his power stroke. It has been foretold.
