Mets vs. Phillies odds, line, score prediction, start time: 2024 MLB picks, May 14 best bets from proven model

USATSI

The New York Mets will look to even up their four-game series at one game apiece when they battle the Philadelphia Phillies in a key National League East Division matchup on Tuesday afternoon. The Phillies (29-13), who have won 10 of 12, lead the division by two games over the Atlanta Braves. The Mets (19-21), who have lost three of four, are in fourth place in the NL East. Philadelphia has won four of the last five season series against New York, including going 7-6 against the Mets a year ago. Philadelphia earned a 5-4 win in 10 innings on Monday. The Phillies lead the all-time series 549-519, but the series is tied at 266-266 in games played at New York.

First pitch from Citi Field in New York is set for 1:10 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a –135 favorite on the money line (risk $135 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5. Before making any Phillies vs. Mets picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 7 of the 2024 MLB season on a profitable 115-91 run on top-rated MLB picks dating back to last season, and it has excelled on top-rated run-line picks during that span, going 20-8 (+708). Anybody following has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Mets and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Mets:

Phillies vs. Mets money line: Philadelphia -135, New York +114
Phillies vs. Mets over-under: 7.5 runs
Phillies vs. Mets run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+126)
PHI: The Phillies have hit the money line in 75 of their last 126 games (+8.55 units)
NYM: The Mets have hit the game total under in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+14.95 units)
Phillies vs. Mets picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Phillies

Philadelphia is expected to send right-hander Aaron Nola (4-2, 3.67 ERA) to the mound. Nola has allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of eight games, and has won four of his last five decisions. He is coming off a 5-3 loss to Toronto on Wednesday, allowing four earned runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts in 5.2 innings. In 26 career starts against the Mets, Nola is 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA with 48 walks and 190 strikeouts.

Second baseman Bryson Stott has been red hot, going 2-for-4 with a homer, two RBI and two runs scored on Monday night. He has a five-game hitting streak, going 9-for-17 during that stretch. In 37 games this season, he is hitting .277 with four homers, 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. In 24 career games against the Mets, he is hitting .273 with three doubles, one triple, one homer and seven RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

Right-hander Jose Butto (1-2, 3.00 ERA) will start for New York. He has allowed four or fewer earned runs in each of his six starts. In his last game at St. Louis, he picked up the win in a 7-5 New York victory. In five innings, he allowed five hits, three runs – all earned – with three walks and three strikeouts. In his previous outing, he pitched well, but took the loss in a 1-0 decision against the Chicago Cubs. In six innings, he allowed just one earned run on four hits with two walks and six strikeouts.

Right fielder Starling Marte has hits in six of the last 10 games, including a double in Monday's loss. He was 2-for-5 with a double in a 7-5 win over St. Louis on May 7. In 36 games this season, Marte is batting .253 with six doubles, four homers, 15 RBI and 20 runs scored. He has hit the Phillies well. In 58 career games against Philadelphia, he is hitting .378 with seven homers and 34 RBI. See which team to pick here.